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Credit risk and the transmission of interest rate shocks

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  • Palazzo, Berardino
  • Yamarthy, Ram

Abstract

Using daily credit default swap (CDS) data, we find a positive relation between corporate credit risk and unexpected monetary policy shocks during FOMC announcement days. Positive shocks to interest rates increase the expected loss component of CDS spreads as well as a risk premium component. However, not all firms respond in the same manner. We show that firm-level credit risk is an important driver of the monetary policy response, both in credit and equity markets, and its role is not diminished by the inclusion of other risk proxies. A stylized corporate model of monetary policy, investment, and financing rationalizes our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Palazzo, Berardino & Yamarthy, Ram, 2022. "Credit risk and the transmission of interest rate shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 120-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:130:y:2022:i:c:p:120-136
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.06.004
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    3. Fengler, Matthias & Koeniger, Winfried & Minger, Stephan, 2024. "The transmission of monetary policy to the cost of hedging," CFS Working Paper Series 726, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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    5. Chiţu, Livia & Grothe, Magdalena & Schulze, Tatjana & Van Robays, Ine, 2023. "Financial shock transmission to heterogeneous firms: the earnings-based borrowing constraint channel," Working Paper Series 2860, European Central Bank.
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    7. Marco Lo Duca & Diego Moccero & Fabio Parlapiano, 2024. "The impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy shocks on the default risk of the euro-area corporate sector," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1460, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Deng, Minjie & Fang, Min, 2022. "Debt maturity heterogeneity and investment responses to monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Lin, Zi & Yang, Qing & Chen, Shasha, 2025. "Exploring the correlation between financial leverage and corporate bond credit spreads," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Timmer, Yannick & Van der Ghote, Alejandro & Perez-Orive, Ander, 2026. "Monetary policy under multiple financing constraints," Working Paper Series 3217, European Central Bank.
    11. Konietschke, Paul & Metzler, Julian & Ponte Marques, Aurea, 2026. "A quantile probability model for sectoral corporate defaults in Europe," Working Paper Series 3207, European Central Bank.
    12. Lo Duca, Marco & Moccero, Diego & Parlapiano, Fabio, 2024. "The impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy shocks on credit risk in the euro area corporate sector," Working Paper Series 2897, European Central Bank.
    13. Diego Bonelli & Berardino Palazzo & Ram Yamarthy, 2025. "Good inflation, bad inflation: implications for risky asset prices," Working Papers 2525, Banco de España.
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    15. Arthur R. Wardle & Sherzod B. Akhundjanov, 2025. "Industry Compliance Costs Under the Renewable Fuel Standard: Evidence from Compliance Credits," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 67(1), pages 1-34, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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