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Supply shocks and monetary policy responses in emerging economies

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  • Ocampo, José Antonio
  • Ojeda-Joya, Jair

Abstract

Supply shocks bring about important dilemmas for monetary policy in emerging economies. We compute monetary policy responses to supply shocks using quarterly data and a Bayesian panel VAR for 24 emerging economies during the period 2004–2019. In this framework, we identify supply shocks as unexpected and temporary total factor productivity innovations which are orthogonal to demand related shocks. We highlight three results from this econometric exercise. First, monetary policy is, in average, procyclical in emerging economies after temporary supply shocks. Second, monetary policy is more procyclical in fixed than in flexible exchange-rate regimes. Third, monetary policy is more procyclical in economies with a higher degree of financial openness. The latter result is a central dilemma for emerging economies during supply shocks, since it implies that financial openness prevents less procyclical monetary policy reactions due to the trade-off between exchange rate and income volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Ocampo, José Antonio & Ojeda-Joya, Jair, 2022. "Supply shocks and monetary policy responses in emerging economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(4).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:lajcba:v:3:y:2022:i:4:s2666143822000254
    DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2022.100071
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Supply shock; Monetary policy; Financial openness; Exchange-rate regime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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