IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article

House prices, development costs, and the value of waiting

  • Guthrie, Graeme

This paper demonstrates that new house prices can exceed direct development costs by considerable margins in competitive housing markets with finite price-elasticities of demand and no restrictive land-use regulation. The premium reflects the value of the option to delay developing the marginal piece of undeveloped land. Competition amongst landowners reduces the option value relative to the standard open-city framework, but--as long as undeveloped land is heterogeneous--does not reduce it to zero. Calibrating a special case of the model to US data suggests that the premium is economically significant. In addition to proving that prices can exceed costs without regulation, this paper shows that the relationship between volatility and the rate of investment is more complicated than previously thought.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094-1190(10)00011-2
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 68 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 56-71

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:68:y:2010:i:1:p:56-71
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622905

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Capozza Dennis R. & Sick Gordon A., 1994. "The Risk Structure of Land Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 297-319, May.
  2. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
  3. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, . "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 382, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
  4. Mullahy, John, 1986. "Specification and testing of some modified count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 341-365, December.
  5. Guthrie, Graeme, 2009. "Real Options in Theory and Practice," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195380637, May.
  6. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1996. "Urban Development with Lags," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 87-113, January.
  7. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2003. "The impact of building restrictions on housing affordability," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 21-39.
  8. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1990. "The stochastic city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 187-203, September.
  9. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
  10. Eduardo S. Schwartz & Walter N. Torous, 2007. "Commercial Office Space: Testing the Implications of Real Options Models with Competitive Interactions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-20, 03.
  11. Stavins, Robert & Plantinga, Andrew & Lubowski, Ruben, 2002. "The Effects of Potential Land Development on Agricultural Land Prices," Discussion Papers dp-02-11-, Resources For the Future.
  12. Conze, Antoine & Viswanathan, 1991. " Path Dependent Options: The Case of Lookback Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1893-907, December.
  13. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
  14. Hanushek, Eric A & Quigley, John M, 1980. "What Is the Price Elasticity of Housing Demand?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 449-54, August.
  15. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
  16. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
  17. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
  18. Glaeser, Edward L & Gyourko, Joseph & Saks, Raven, 2005. "Why Is Manhattan So Expensive? Regulation and the Rise in Housing Prices," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 331-69, October.
  19. Richard K. Green & Stephen Malpezzi & Stephen K. Mayo, 1999. "Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 99-16, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
  20. James C. Ohls & David Pines, 1975. "Discontinuous Urban Development and Economic Efficiency," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(3), pages 224-234.
  21. Capozza, Dennis & Li, Yuming, 1994. "The Intensity and Timing of Investment: The Case of Land," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 889-904, September.
  22. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:68:y:2010:i:1:p:56-71. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.