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House prices, development costs, and the value of waiting

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  • Guthrie, Graeme

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that new house prices can exceed direct development costs by considerable margins in competitive housing markets with finite price-elasticities of demand and no restrictive land-use regulation. The premium reflects the value of the option to delay developing the marginal piece of undeveloped land. Competition amongst landowners reduces the option value relative to the standard open-city framework, but--as long as undeveloped land is heterogeneous--does not reduce it to zero. Calibrating a special case of the model to US data suggests that the premium is economically significant. In addition to proving that prices can exceed costs without regulation, this paper shows that the relationship between volatility and the rate of investment is more complicated than previously thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Guthrie, Graeme, 2010. "House prices, development costs, and the value of waiting," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 56-71, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:68:y:2010:i:1:p:56-71
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    Cited by:

    1. Katz, Michael & Evans, Lew & Every-Palmer, James, 2011. "Industrial Organisation and Competition Policy Workshop," Working Paper Series 19180, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    2. Lu, Chien-Lin & Liao, Wen-Chi & Peng, Chien-Wen, 2020. "Developers’ perspectives on timing to build: Evidence from microdata of land acquisition and development," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19180 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Ross, Stephen L., 2015. "Change and Persistence in the Economic Status of Neighborhoods and Cities," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1047-1120, Elsevier.
    5. Chinmoy Ghosh & Milena T. Petrova, 2017. "The Impact of Capital Expenditures on Property Performance in Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 106-133, July.
    6. Yuming Fu & Song Shi, 2022. "Barriers to urban spatial development: Evidence from the 2010–2011 Christchurch earthquakes," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 218-245, January.
    7. Furth, Salim, 2021. "Foundations and Microfoundations: Building Houses on Regulated Land," Working Papers 10752, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    8. Guthrie, Graeme, 2012. "Regulated prices and real options," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 650-663.
    9. Graeme Guthrie, 2023. "Land Hoarding and Urban Development," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 753-793, November.
    10. McMillen, Daniel & O’Sullivan, Arthur, 2013. "Option value and the price of teardown properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 71-82.
    11. Graeme Guthrie, 2014. "Real Options And The Cross-Section Of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 265-283, April.
    12. Damrongsak Rinchumphu & Chris Eves & Connie Susilawati, 2013. "Brand Value of Property in Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR), Thailand," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 16(3), pages 296-322.
    13. Nguyen Nghia Hoai & Chinda Thanwadee, 2015. "Investigating Factors Influencing Profits Enhancement in Real Estate Companies in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 1(3), pages 107-113.
    14. L. Li & Helen X. H. Bao & K. W. Chau, 2023. "On the Strategic Timing of Sales by Real Estate Developers: To Wait or To Presell?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 169-196, January.
    15. Guthrie, Graeme, 2012. "Uncertainty and the trade-off between scale and flexibility in investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 1718-1728.

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