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Effects of the Fundão Dam break on the performance of socioeconomic indicators in Mariana municipality, Minas Gerais State

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  • Monteiro, Thiago Vinícius Alves
  • Matlaba, Valente José
  • Moia, Gabriel Costa Maciel
  • dos Santos, Jorge Filipe

Abstract

The objective of this study was to analyze the effects of the collapse of the Fundão Dam on the performance of seven socioeconomic indicators in the Mariana municipality, Minas Gerais, and to evaluate the contribution of the Renova Foundation's repair and recovery actions in improving these indicators. We applied the synthetic control method, as recommended by the literature, when the unit of interest underwent a unique intervention not shared with other units. The construction of the control group considers similarities—characteristics before the event—to the treatment unit. We found that Mariana lacked an effective economic recovery after the event and that labor changes related to temporary activities had a different profile from that of those employed in mining (mostly specialized technical professionals). There was a drop in investments in sport and leisure, which are sectors associated with improving revenues and other social indicators, such as crime, as highlighted by local leaders. In addition to amplifying existing approaches to this event, this work could guide future actions by mining companies in sectors with still low performance. The study can subsidize research on other municipalities with similar situations or structural events and contribute to studies that test the socioeconomic effects of interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Monteiro, Thiago Vinícius Alves & Matlaba, Valente José & Moia, Gabriel Costa Maciel & dos Santos, Jorge Filipe, 2026. "Effects of the Fundão Dam break on the performance of socioeconomic indicators in Mariana municipality, Minas Gerais State," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:112:y:2026:i:c:s0301420725003411
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105799
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    References listed on IDEAS

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