IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v48y2026i2p489-500.html

The end of globalization? Evidence and policy evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz
  • Koutronas, Evangelos

Abstract

This paper suggests a Deglobalization Index (Ð-Index) that utilizes economic and security indicators to track the shift from integration to fragmentation (1990–2025). The proposed multidimensional model is constructed under the Omnia Mobilis assumption and interpreted through the Dynamic Imbalanced State framework. Key findings show peak globalization in 1996–2000, a post-2008 break, and a sharp rise in deglobalization after 2021. Policy evaluation suggests the need for new national economic strategies that emphasize friend-shoring and regional diversification, interoperable standards and transparent export controls, targeted buffers for critical goods, and WTO-compatible plurilaterals to manage protectionist pressures. These measures reduce exposure to shocks while preserving efficiency. We conclude with a prioritized policy agenda balancing resilience and openness.

Suggested Citation

  • Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2026. "The end of globalization? Evidence and policy evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 489-500.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:48:y:2026:i:2:p:489-500
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.12.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893825001334
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.12.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Douglas A. Irwin, 2017. "Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number irwi-2, May.
    2. repec:ehl:lserod:22334 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    4. Mr. Thomas William Dorsey & Mika Saito & Armine Khachatryan & Ms. Irena Asmundson & Ioana Niculcea, 2011. "Trade and Trade Finance in the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/016, International Monetary Fund.
    5. François Bourguignon, 2015. "The Globalization of Inequality," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10433, December.
    6. Gao, Xue & Zhang, Yi, 2022. "What is behind the globalization of technology? Exploring the interplay of multi-level drivers of international patent extension in the solar photovoltaic industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    7. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-793, August.
    8. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2020. "The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 121-142.
    9. Díez, Federico J., 2014. "The asymmetric effects of tariffs on intra-firm trade and offshoring decisions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 76-91.
    10. Mr. Abdul d Abiad & Petia Topalova & Ms. Prachi Mishra, 2011. "How Does Trade Evolve in the Aftermath of Financial Crises?," IMF Working Papers 2011/003, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Harrison, Sharon & Weder, Mark, 2009. "Technological change and the roaring twenties: A neoclassical perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 363-375, September.
    12. Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2022. "The impact of the Russian Aggression against Ukraine on the Russia-EU Trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 599-616.
    13. Douglas A. Irwin, 2017. "Introduction to "Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy, pages 1-27, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    15. Douglas A. Irwin, 2019. "U.S. Trade Policy in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 26256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    17. Huiwen Gong & Robert Hassink & Christopher Foster & Martin Hess & Harry Garretsen, 2022. "Globalisation in reverse? Reconfiguring the geographies of value chains and production networks [Does Covid-19 Spark the End of Globalisation?]," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 15(2), pages 165-181.
    18. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    19. Stephen Nickell & Stephen Redding & Joanna Swaffield, 2008. "The Uneven Pace of Deindustrialisation in the OECD," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1154-1184, September.
    20. Hiau Looi Kee & Heiwai Tang, 2016. "Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1402-1436, June.
    21. Edward Anderson & Samuel Obeng, 2021. "Globalisation and government spending: Evidence for the ‘hyper‐globalisation’ of the 1990s and 2000s," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 1144-1176, May.
    22. Michael A. Witt, 2019. "De-globalization: Theories, predictions, and opportunities for international business research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 50(7), pages 1053-1077, September.
    23. Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo, 2011. "Policy modeling: Definition, classification and evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 523-536, July.
    24. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    25. Crafts, Nicholas, 2004. "The world economy in the 1990s: a long run perspective," Economic History Working Papers 22334, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    26. Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada, 2017. "An alternative graphical modeling for economics: Econographicology," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 2115-2139, September.
    27. Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Yap, Su Fei, 2013. "The origins and evolution of policy modeling," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 170-182.
    28. Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada & Evangelos Koutronas & Minsoo Lee, 2021. "Stagpression: The Economic and Financial Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Contemporary Economics, Vizja University, vol. 15(1), February.
    29. Alicia García-Herrero & Junyun Tan, 2020. "Deglobalisation in the context of United States-China decoupling," Bruegel Policy Contributions 40447, Bruegel.
    30. Mr. Joong S Kang & Wei Liao, 2016. "Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?," IMF Working Papers 2016/106, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    2. Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2022. "The impact of the Russian Aggression against Ukraine on the Russia-EU Trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 599-616.
    3. Torul Orhan & Alper C. Emre, 2010. "Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 90-105, July.
    4. repec:bla:opecrv:v:32:y:2008:i:4:p:343-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
    6. Andreopoulos Spyros, 2009. "Oil Matters: Real Input Prices and U.S. Unemployment Revisited," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, March.
    7. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
    8. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    9. Raúl J. Crespo & José A. Zambrano, 2018. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Price Shocks in Venezuela," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 18/703, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    10. Aktham I. Maghyereh & Basil Awartani & Osama D. Sweidan, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and real output growth: new evidence from selected oil-importing countries in the Middle East," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1601-1621, May.
    11. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    13. Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada & Evangelos Koutronas & Donghyun Park & Alam Khan & Muhammad Tahir, 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 on the economic performance of Wuhan, China (2019–2021)," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 847-862, February.
    14. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    15. Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY, 2013. "The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(11), pages 730-739.
    16. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Panagiotakopoulou, Sofia, 2018. "Oil price shocks and uncertainty: How stable is their relationship over time?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 42-53.
    17. Garzon, Antonio J. & Hierro, Luis A., 2021. "Asymmetries in the transmission of oil price shocks to inflation in the eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    18. Bunce, Alan & Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul, 2023. "Asymmetric effect of the oil price in the ecuadorian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    19. Marc Gronwald, 2009. "Investigating the U.S. Oil-Macroeconomy Nexus using Rolling Impulse Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 2702, CESifo.
    20. Ruiz Estrada Mario Arturo & Evangelos Koutronas & Donghyun Park, 2019. "The economic Gordian Knot of Brexit: an East and Southeast Asian perspective," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(6), pages 2797-2820, November.
    21. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:48:y:2026:i:2:p:489-500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.