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The end of globalization? Evidence and policy evaluation

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  • Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz
  • Koutronas, Evangelos

Abstract

This paper suggests a Deglobalization Index (Ð-Index) that utilizes economic and security indicators to track the shift from integration to fragmentation (1990–2025). The proposed multidimensional model is constructed under the Omnia Mobilis assumption and interpreted through the Dynamic Imbalanced State framework. Key findings show peak globalization in 1996–2000, a post-2008 break, and a sharp rise in deglobalization after 2021. Policy evaluation suggests the need for new national economic strategies that emphasize friend-shoring and regional diversification, interoperable standards and transparent export controls, targeted buffers for critical goods, and WTO-compatible plurilaterals to manage protectionist pressures. These measures reduce exposure to shocks while preserving efficiency. We conclude with a prioritized policy agenda balancing resilience and openness.

Suggested Citation

  • Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2026. "The end of globalization? Evidence and policy evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 489-500.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:48:y:2026:i:2:p:489-500
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.12.001
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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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