IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v43y2021i1p15-33.html

Modeling U.S. monetary policy during the global financial crisis and lessons for Covid-19

Author

Listed:
  • Bhar, Ramaprasad
  • Malliaris, A.G.

Abstract

The paper formulates the modeling of unconventional monetary policy and critically evaluates its effectiveness to address the Global Financial Crisis. We begin with certain principles guiding general scientific modeling and focus on Milton Friedman's 1968 Presidential Address that delineates the strengths and limitations of monetary policy to pursue certain goals. The modeling of monetary policy with its novelty of quantitative easing to target unusually high unemployment is evaluated by a Markov switching econometric model using monthly data for the period 2002–2015. We conclude by relating the lessons learned from unconventional monetary policy during the Global Financial Crisis to the recent bold initiatives of the Fed to mitigate the economic and financial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on U.S. households and businesses.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhar, Ramaprasad & Malliaris, A.G., 2021. "Modeling U.S. monetary policy during the global financial crisis and lessons for Covid-19," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 15-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:43:y:2021:i:1:p:15-33
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.07.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893820300922
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.07.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 2018. "What Happened: Financial Factors in the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew Weinzierl, 2011. "An Exploration of Optimal Stabilization Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 209-272.
    3. Michael J. Fleming & Asani Sarkar & Peter Van Tassel, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Fed’s Response," Liberty Street Economics 20200415, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. John C. Williams, 2013. "Lessons from the financial crisis for unconventional monetary policy," Speech 125, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Charles L Evans, 2010. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 152-157, July.
    6. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    7. Baghestani, Hamid, 2008. "Federal Reserve versus private information: Who is the best unemployment rate predictor," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 101-110.
    8. Igan, Deniz & Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2017. "Monetary policy and balance sheets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 169-184.
    9. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
    10. Daniel L. Thornton, 2014. "QE: is there a portfolio balance effect?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 55-72.
    11. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2018. "Outside the Box: Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Great Recession and Beyond," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 121-146, Fall.
    12. John B. Taylor, 2014. "After Unconventional Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 14108, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    13. Ben S. Bernanke, 2012. "Opening remarks: monetary policy since the onset of the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-22.
    14. Chiarella, Carl & Di Guilmi, Corrado, 2011. "The financial instability hypothesis: A stochastic microfoundation framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1151-1171, August.
    15. Ramaprasad Bhar & Malliaris & Mary Malliaris, 2015. "The impact of large-scale asset purchases on the S&P 500 index, long-term interest rates and unemployment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(55), pages 6010-6018, November.
    16. Wang, Ling, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and aggregate bank lending: Does financial structure matter?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1060-1077.
    17. Robert L. Hetzel & Gary Richardson, 2016. "Money, Banking, and Monetary Policy from the Formation of the Federal Reserve until Today," Working Paper 16-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    18. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-96, Winter.
    19. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-96, Winter.
    20. Ben S. Bernanke, 2020. "The New Tools of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 943-983, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Dengjun & Sogn-Grundvåg, Geir, 2022. "Credit constraints and the severity of COVID-19 impact: Empirical evidence from enterprise surveys," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 337-349.
    2. Imalka Wasana Rathnayaka & Rasheda Khanam & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2024. "Examining Monetary Policy Measures and Their Impacts during and after the COVID Era: OECD Perspectives," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-17, June.
    3. Malliaris, A.G. & Malliaris, Mary & Rzepczynski, Mark S., 2025. "Explaining the asymmetric S&P 500 equity index in five themes: The success and failure of macro narratives," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    4. Abdelkader Aguir, 2025. "Post-COVID Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Economies: Revisiting the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting [Les défis de la politique monétaire post-COVID dans les économies émergentes : revisiter l’efficacité du ciblage de l’inflation]," Post-Print hal-05136089, HAL.
    5. Huan Huu Nguyen & Thanh Phuc Nguyen & Anh Nguyen Tram Tran, 2022. "Impacts of monetary policy transmission on bank performance and risk in the Vietnamese market: Does the Covid-19 pandemic matter?," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 2094591-209, December.
    6. Oscar Afonso & Pedro G. Lima, 2023. "Effects of monetary policy on the skill premium and the growth rate in a directed technical change model with heterogeneous cash‐in‐advance constraints," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4020-4036, October.
    7. Niladri Palit & Atanu Chaudhuri & Nishikant Mishra, 2025. "Humanitarian management strategy for interstate movement of migrant workers in India during COVID-19 pandemic: an optimization based approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 348(3), pages 1879-1924, May.
    8. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    9. Seip, Knut L. & Zhang, Dan, 2025. "A tale of the two recessions 2008 and 2020: What do the Taylor rule, the Phillips curve and Okun's law tell?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 681-701.
    10. Alessandro Gennaro & Michelle Nietlispach, 2021. "Corporate Governance and Risk Management: Lessons (Not) Learnt from the Financial Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Malliaris, Mary, 2020. "The impact of the twin financial crises," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 878-892.
    2. David Staines, 2023. "Stochastic Equilibrium the Lucas Critique and Keynesian Economics," Papers 2312.16214, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    3. Neely, Christopher J., 2022. "How persistent are unconventional monetary policy effects?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Ma, Liang, 2024. "Using stock prices to help identify unconventional monetary policy shocks for external instrument SVAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1234-1247.
    5. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2022. "Financial effects of QE and conventional monetary policy compared," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Edward Nelson, 2020. "Seven Fallacies Concerning Milton Friedman's “The Role of Monetary Policy”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 145-164, February.
    7. Thomas Palley, 2018. "Recovering Keynesian Phillips curve theory," FMM Working Paper 26-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. Ernest Gnan & Claudia Kwapil & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2018. "Monetary policy after the crisis: mandates, targets, and international linkages," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/18, pages 8-33.
    9. Kubendran, N., 2020. "Testing the Effectiveness of Johnsonian Approach using India’s Balance of Payments," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 15(3), pages 61-80, September.
    10. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Goulven Rubin, 2018. "Robert J. Gordon and the introduction of the natural rate hypothesis in the Keynesian framework," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01821825, HAL.
    11. Mei, Dongzhou & Wang, Jiaxin & Zhang, Mi, 2025. "US monetary policy spillovers, maturity mismatch and Chinese corporate financing premium," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. Thornton, Daniel L., 2017. "Effectiveness of QE: An assessment of event-study evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 56-74.
    13. Ballabriga, Fernando & Davtyan, Karen, 2025. "Comparing conventional and unconventional monetary policy effects in the euro area and the United States," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    14. Olatunji Abdul Shobande & Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe, 2021. "Monetary Policy Interdependency in Fisher Effect: A Comparative Evidence," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(1), pages 203-226.
    15. Jannie Rossouw, 2021. "Perspectives of a capitalist on targeting inflation at 3 per cent and on fiscal sustainability in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(4), pages 635-643, December.
    16. Emilio Ocampo, 2020. "The Global Disinflation Puzzle. A Selective Review of the Theory and Evidence in an Historical Context," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 726, Universidad del CEMA.
    17. Ricardo Reis, 2021. "Losing the Inflation Anchors," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 307-379.
    18. Andrea Nocera & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2022. "Causal Effects of the Fed's Large-Scale Asset Purchases on Firms' Capital Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 9695, CESifo.
    19. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Sergei K. Egiev, 2025. "Liquidity Traps: A Unified Theory of the Great Depression and the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1424-1551, December.
    20. Altavilla, Carlo & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Quaedvlieg, Rogier, 2024. "Macro and micro of external finance premium and monetary policy transmission," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:43:y:2021:i:1:p:15-33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.