IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-05136089.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Post-COVID Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Economies: Revisiting the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting
[Les défis de la politique monétaire post-COVID dans les économies émergentes : revisiter l’efficacité du ciblage de l’inflation]

Author

Listed:
  • Abdelkader Aguir

    (ESPI - Ecole Supérieure des Professions Immobilières)

Abstract

The global COVID-19 crisis led to a major recession, following a supply and demand shock severely affecting both developed and emerging economies. Containment measures reduced demand and production, while financial market volatility impacted emerging economies. Countries' stimulus policies had mixed effects on these economies. The pandemic also disrupted global supply chains, leading to volatility in the prices of raw materials such as oil, metals and agricultural products. These fluctuations had an impact on production costs and, consequently, on the prices of final goods and services. In the wake of rising inflation, some are questioning the effectiveness of inflation-targeting policies. Our study evaluates the performance of this monetary regime in the face of crisis, estimating the efficiency frontier: inflation variability - output variability, which allows us to deduce measures of economic performance and measures of the efficiency of monetary policy in the face of an economic crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdelkader Aguir, 2025. "Post-COVID Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Economies: Revisiting the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting [Les défis de la politique monétaire post-COVID dans les économies émergentes : revi," Post-Print hal-05136089, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05136089
    DOI: 10.57239/pjlss-2025-23.1.00705
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05136089v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-05136089v1/document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.57239/pjlss-2025-23.1.00705?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hale, Galina & Juvenal, Luciana, 2023. "External Balance Sheets and the COVID-19 Crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Harding, Martín & Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2023. "Understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 101-118.
    3. K. P. Prabheesh & Sanjiv Kumar, 2023. "How Do the Financial Markets Respond to India’s Asset Purchase Program? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(5), pages 1591-1606, April.
    4. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2023. "Inflation target credibility in times of high inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    5. Winnie Coleman & Dieter Nautz, 2023. "Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility, and the COVID‐19 Pandemic: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1937-1953, October.
    6. Çakmaklı, Cem & Demiralp, Selva & Özcan, Şebnem Kalemli & Yeşiltaş, Sevcan & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "COVID-19 and emerging markets: A SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Ftiti, Zied & Aguir, Abdelkader & Smida, Mounir, 2017. "Time-inconsistency and expansionary business cycle theories: What does matter for the central bank independence–inflation relationship?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 215-227.
    8. Meier, Matthias & Pinto, Eugenio, 2024. "COVID-19 Supply Chain Disruptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    9. Abdelkader Aguir, 2015. "Efficiency of monetary policy under inflation targeting," Post-Print hal-03791251, HAL.
    10. Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Ioannis G. Melissaropoulos & Theodoros Daglis & Panayotis G. Michaelides, 2023. "The euro to dollar exchange rate in the Covid‐19 era: Evidence from spectral causality and Markov‐switching estimation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2037-2055, April.
    11. Banerjee, Ryan & Contreras, Juan & Mehrotra, Aaron & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2024. "Inflation at risk in advanced and emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, 2023. "International Macroeconomics: From the Great Financial Crisis to COVID-19, and Beyond," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 1-34, March.
    13. Guo, Minjie & Lim, Eun-Son, 2024. "Does inflation targeting matter for price stability?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1015-1032.
    14. Davis, J. Scott & Zlate, Andrei, 2023. "The global financial cycle and capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    15. Alex Coad & Sofia Amaral-Garcia & Peter Bauer & Clemens Domnick & Peter Harasztosi & Rozália Pál & Mercedes Teruel, 2023. "Investment expectations by vulnerable European firms in times of COVID," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(1), pages 193-220, March.
    16. Abdelkader Aguir & Mounir Smida, 2015. "Efficiency of monetary policy under inflation targeting," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 788-813.
    17. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Malliaris, A.G., 2021. "Modeling U.S. monetary policy during the global financial crisis and lessons for Covid-19," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 15-33.
    18. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Fasianos, Apostolos, 2023. "Modelling monetary policy’s impact on labour markets under Covid-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    19. Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Pathirage, Kasun, 2023. "COVID-19 policy actions and inflation targeting in South Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2025. "Asymmetric inflation target credibility," CFS Working Paper Series 731, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Mai Dao & Allan Dizioli & Chris Jackson & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2023. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2023/178, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Abdelkader Aguir, 2025. "Covid-19 and inflation targeting in the Alliance of Sahel States: ARDL approach," Post-Print hal-05050170, HAL.
    4. Abdelkader Aguir, 2018. "Central Bank Credibility, Independence, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 7(3), pages 91-110.
    5. Abdelkader AGUIR, 2016. "Régime de ciblage d'inflation et crise financière : efficacité et performance," Post-Print hal-03825936, HAL.
    6. Abdelkader Aguir & Mahaman Boubacar Mohamed Salim, 2025. "Covid-19 and inflation targeting in the Alliance of Sahel States: ARDL approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(1), pages 273-287.
    7. Winnie Coleman & Dieter Nautz, 2025. "Asymmetric Inflation Target Credibility," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0060, Berlin School of Economics.
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Anamaria Diana Sova & Robert Sova, 2024. "The Covid‐19 pandemic and European trade flows: Evidence from a dynamic panel model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2563-2580, July.
    9. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "The hard road to a soft landing: Evidence from a (modestly) nonlinear structural model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    10. Bahadır Karakoç, 2024. "Trade Credit Borrowing Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence From Turkish Publicly Traded Firms," Journal of Finance Letters (Maliye ve Finans Yazıları), Maliye ve Finans Yazıları Yayıncılık Ltd. Şti., vol. 39(122), pages 110-133, October.
    11. Joseph, Andreas & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit & Kapetanios, George, 2024. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1521-1538.
    12. Lamichhane, Pradeep & Pourali, Nima & Scott, Lauren & Tran, Nam N. & Lin, Liangliang & Gelonch, Marc Escribà & Rebrov, Evgeny V. & Hessel, Volker, 2024. "Critical review: ‘Green’ ethylene production through emerging technologies, with a focus on plasma catalysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    13. Dong, Zhanyu & Cai, Jiayi & Li, Xuchao & Luan, Mengna, 2025. "Firm-level impacts and recovery dynamics following a public health crisis: Lessons from China’s SARS experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    14. Masciandaro, Donato, 2022. "Independence, conservatism, and beyond: Monetary policy, central bank governance and central banker preferences (1981–2021)," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    15. Huimin Liu & Yupeng Shi & Xuze Yang & Wentao Zhang, 2023. "The Role of Business Environment and Digital Government in Mitigating Supply Chain Vulnerability—Evidence from the COVID-19 Shock," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-15, January.
    16. Serdar Kabaca & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic," Staff Working Papers 23-19, Bank of Canada.
    17. Jin Li & Guie Fu & Xichen Zhao, 2024. "Urban Economic Resilience and Supply Chain Dynamics: Evaluating Monetary Recovery Policies in Global Cities during the Early COVID-19 Pandemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, February.
    18. Hiroshi Mukunoki, 2022. "Comment on “How COVID‐19 Medical Supply Shortages Led to Extraordinary Trade and Industrial Policy”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 138-139, January.
    19. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. Khorana, Sangeeta & Escaith, Hubert & Ali, Salamat & Kumari, Sushma & Do, Quynh, 2022. "The changing contours of global value chains post-COVID: Evidence from the Commonwealth," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 75-86.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05136089. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.