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Covid-19 and inflation targeting in the Alliance of Sahel States: ARDL approach

Author

Listed:
  • Abdelkader Aguir

    (Laboratoire ESPI2R Research in Real Estate / University of Sousse, FSEG Sousse, Lab MOFID)

  • Mahaman Boubacar Mohamed Salim

    (University of Sousse, Faculty of Economics and Management of Sousse, Lab MOFID)

Abstract

This article aims to identify the determinants of inflation trends in the ASS (Alliance of Sahel States) zone using the ARDL model, over the period 2019M1-2023M12. The main results of our analyses show that: (1) there is a short-term relationship between the explanatory variable and the explained variables. In fact, reading the adjustment coefficient of this information means that, when inflation is far from its short-term equilibrium and to reach long-term equilibrium, its annual speed of adjustment is 14.7%; (2). The results of the bounds cointegration test confirm the existence of a cointegrating relationship between the model's explanatory variables, thereby, confirming the long-term relationship between the series of study variables; (3) the long-term relationship between inflation and the money supply shows that a 1% increase in money supply generates a 0.60% increase in inflation. Therefore, the Covid-19 has a significant impact on inflation and economic activity in the long term in the ASS zone.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdelkader Aguir & Mahaman Boubacar Mohamed Salim, 2025. "Covid-19 and inflation targeting in the Alliance of Sahel States: ARDL approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(1), pages 273-287.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-24-00244
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; ASS; COVID-19.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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