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India–ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: An ex post evaluation

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  • Bhattacharyya, Ranajoy
  • Mandal, Avijit

Abstract

Ex post effects of the India–ASEAN Free Trade Agreement reveal that India's balance of trade with ASEAN has deteriorated and there is a weak correspondence between tariff reforms and trade expansion. The aggregate value of the net surplus with the government after taxing gainers and subsidizing losers was positive up to 2012 but has been declining ever since and became negative 2013 as trade with the rest of the world has fallen for both India as well as ASEAN owing to the global slowdown. We show that had the slowdown not been there the surplus would always have been positive for India. We also propose two alternative policy scenarios where the surplus would always have been positive: an FTA with rest of the world and a schedule where tariff elastic goods were given priority.

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  • Bhattacharyya, Ranajoy & Mandal, Avijit, 2016. "India–ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: An ex post evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 340-352.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:38:y:2016:i:2:p:340-352
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.02.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Saborowski, Christian, 2010. "Estimates of trade-related adjustment costs in Syria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 843-864, November.
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    9. Ranajoy Bhattacharyya & Avijit Mandal, 2014. "Estimating the Impact of the India–ASEAN Free Trade Agreement on Indian Industries," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 15(1), pages 93-114, March.
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    2. Loitongbam Bishwanjit Singh, 2021. "Impact of India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: An Assessment from the Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(4), pages 400-414, November.
    3. Xiang, Hongjin & Kuang, Yanxiang & Li, Chenhua, 2017. "Impact of the China–Australia FTA on global coal production and trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 65-78.
    4. Donni Fajar Anugrah & Cicilia Anggadewi Harun & Dian Rahmawati & Sulistiyo Kadam Ardiyono & Hilya Jannatul Imron, 2024. "Measuring Export Diversification Strategies Amid Global Geo-Economic Fragmentation," Working Papers WP/06/2024, Bank Indonesia.

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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