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India–ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: An ex post evaluation

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  • Bhattacharyya, Ranajoy
  • Mandal, Avijit

Abstract

Ex post effects of the India–ASEAN Free Trade Agreement reveal that India's balance of trade with ASEAN has deteriorated and there is a weak correspondence between tariff reforms and trade expansion. The aggregate value of the net surplus with the government after taxing gainers and subsidizing losers was positive up to 2012 but has been declining ever since and became negative 2013 as trade with the rest of the world has fallen for both India as well as ASEAN owing to the global slowdown. We show that had the slowdown not been there the surplus would always have been positive for India. We also propose two alternative policy scenarios where the surplus would always have been positive: an FTA with rest of the world and a schedule where tariff elastic goods were given priority.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhattacharyya, Ranajoy & Mandal, Avijit, 2016. "India–ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: An ex post evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 340-352.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:38:y:2016:i:2:p:340-352
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.02.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Saborowski, Christian, 2010. "Estimates of trade-related adjustment costs in Syria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 843-864, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Farajzadeh, Zakariya & Zhu, Xueqin & Bakhshoodeh, Mohammad, 2017. "Trade reform in Iran for accession to the World Trade Organization: Analysis of welfare and environmental impacts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 75-85.
    2. Xiang, Hongjin & Kuang, Yanxiang & Li, Chenhua, 2017. "Impact of the China–Australia FTA on global coal production and trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 65-78.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Partial reform of tariff; Free Trade Agreement; Compensation principle; India; ASEAN;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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