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Sales and the (Mis)measurement of price level fluctuations

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  • Glandon, PJ

Abstract

I use scanner data to investigate whether temporary price reductions (“sales”) play a role in aggregate price adjustment. Sales have a large and variable impact on the growth rate of average price paid. Even after aggregating across goods and markets, the monthly growth rate of average price paid is four times as volatile as the regular price because of changes in sale frequency, depth, and quantity response. The impact of sales is positively correlated with the local unemployment rate during recessions. The CPI item indexes used to deflate nominal consumption expenditure do not fully account for variation in sale activity. I show evidence that real consumption growth was understated during the last two recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Glandon, PJ, 2018. "Sales and the (Mis)measurement of price level fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 60-77.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:60-77
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.08.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Snir, Avichai & Chen, Haipeng (Allan) & Levy, Daniel, 2022. "Zero-Ending Prices, Cognitive Convenience, and Price Rigidity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Forthcomi, pages 1-39.
    2. Benjamin Eden & Maya Eden & Jonah Yuen, 2019. "Temporary sales in response to aggregate shocks," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 19-00003, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    3. Benjamin Eden & Maya Eden & Jonah Yuen, 2016. "Inside The Price Dispersion Box: Evidence From Us Scanner Data," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 16-00017, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Gee Hee Hong, 2015. "The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 993-1029, March.
    5. Ray, Sourav & Snir, Avichai & Levy, Daniel, 2023. "Retail Pricing Format and Rigidity of Regular Prices," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 1-1.
    6. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Nicolas Vincent, 2014. "On the Importance of Sales for Aggregate Price Flexibility," Staff Working Papers 14-45, Bank of Canada.
    7. Fernando Borraz & Giacomo Livan & Anahí Rodríguez-Martínez & Pablo Picardo, 2020. "Price, sales, and the business cycle: a time series principal component analysis," Documentos de trabajo 2020002, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    8. Glandon, P.J. & Jaremski, Matthew, 2019. "Competition, business cycles, and price flexibility in grocery stores," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 137-139.
    9. Borraz, Fernando & Livan, Giacomo & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Picardo, Pablo, 2022. "Price, sales, and the business cycle: Microeconomic evidence," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    10. Sheremirov, Viacheslav, 2020. "Price dispersion and inflation: New facts and theoretical implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 59-70.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

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