IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v191y2016i2p398-406.html

Price discounts and the measurement of inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Fox, Kevin J.
  • Syed, Iqbal A.

Abstract

Consumers are very responsive to sales, yet statistical agency practice typically under-weights sale prices in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Evidence is lacking on the impact on the representativeness of prices included in the CPI and on estimates of inflation. Using high-frequency scanner data from US supermarkets we find that the exclusion of sales prices introduces a systematic but stable effect over time so inflation measurement is not significantly affected. We also find evidence that the typical practice of using data from an incomplete period in constructing unit values can lead to an upward bias in the resulting price index.

Suggested Citation

  • Fox, Kevin J. & Syed, Iqbal A., 2016. "Price discounts and the measurement of inflation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 398-406.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:191:y:2016:i:2:p:398-406
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.12.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407615002869
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.12.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Hosken & David Reiffen, 2004. "Patterns of Retail Price Variation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(1), pages 128-146, Spring.
    2. Chahrour, Ryan A., 2011. "Sales and price spikes in retail scanner data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 143-146, February.
    3. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    4. Judith A. Chevalier & Anil K. Kashyap & Peter E. Rossi, 2003. "Why Don't Prices Rise During Periods of Peak Demand? Evidence from Scanner Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 15-37, March.
    5. Dutta, Shantanu & Bergen, Mark & Levy, Daniel, 2002. "Price flexibility in channels of distribution: Evidence from scanner data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 1845-1900, September.
    6. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1637-1673, November.
    7. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2013. "Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 133-163, May.
    8. Harald J. van Heerde & Peter S. H. Leeflang & Dick R. Wittink, 2004. "Decomposing the Sales Promotion Bump with Store Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 317-334, December.
    9. Robert C. Feenstra & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2003. "Scanner Data and Price Indexes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feen03-1, September.
    10. Nakamura, Alice O. & Nakamura, Emi & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2011. "Price dynamics, retail chains and inflation measurement," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 47-55, March.
    11. W. Erwin Diewert & Kevin J. Fox & Jan de Haan, 2015. "Weekly versus Monthly Unit Value Price Indexes," Discussion Papers 2015-15, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    12. Robert C. Feenstra & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2003. "High-Frequency Substitution and the Measurement of Price Indexes," NBER Chapters, in: Scanner Data and Price Indexes, pages 123-146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Ivancic, Lorraine & Erwin Diewert, W. & Fox, Kevin J., 2011. "Scanner data, time aggregation and the construction of price indexes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 24-35, March.
    14. Martin Pesendorfer, 2002. "Retail Sales: A Study of Pricing Behavior in Supermarkets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(1), pages 33-66, January.
    15. Patrick J. Kehoe & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2008. "Temporary Price Changes and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 14392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Alvarez & Herve Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lunnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Price Changes in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 171-192, Spring.
    17. Lorraine Ivancic & Kevin J. Fox, 2013. "Understanding Price Variation Across Stores and Supermarket Chains: Some Implications for CPI Aggregation Methods," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(4), pages 629-647, December.
    18. Rachel Griffith & Ephraim Leibtag & Andrew Leicester & Aviv Nevo, 2009. "Consumer Shopping Behavior: How Much Do Consumers Save?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 99-120, Spring.
    19. Michael J. Boskin, 1998. "Consumer Prices, the Consumer Price Index, and the Cost of Living," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    20. Caves, Douglas W & Christensen, Laurits R & Diewert, W Erwin, 1982. "Multilateral Comparisons of Output, Input, and Productivity Using Superlative Index Numbers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(365), pages 73-86, March.
    21. de Haan, Jan & van der Grient, Heymerik A., 2011. "Eliminating chain drift in price indexes based on scanner data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 36-46, March.
    22. Daniel Hosken & David Reiffen, 2004. "How Retailers Determine Which Products Should Go on Sale: Evidence From Store-Level Data," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 141-177, June.
    23. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Sales and Consumer Inventory," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 543-561, Autumn.
    24. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2008. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 863-904.
    25. Martin Eichenbaum & Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Reference Prices, Costs, and Nominal Rigidities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 234-262, February.
    26. John Conlisk & Eitan Gerstner & Joel Sobel, 1984. "Cyclic Pricing by a Durable Goods Monopolist," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(3), pages 489-505.
    27. Jack E. Triplett, 2003. "Using Scanner Data in Consumer Price Indexes. Some Neglected Conceptual Considerations," NBER Chapters, in: Scanner Data and Price Indexes, pages 151-162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Iqbal A. Syed, 2015. "Sales Spotter: An Algorithm to Identify Sale Prices in Point-of-Sale Data," Discussion Papers 2015-13, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    29. Chen, Haipeng (Allan) & Levy, Daniel & Ray, Sourav & Bergen, Mark, 2008. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment in the Small," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 728-737.
    30. Kevin J. Fox & Daniel Melser, 2014. "Non-Linear Pricing and Price Indexes: Evidence and Implications from Scanner Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(2), pages 261-278, June.
    31. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow & Benjamin A. Malin, 2012. "Reset Price Inflation and the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2798-2825, October.
    32. Joel Sobel, 1984. "The Timing of Sales," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(3), pages 353-368.
    33. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Sales and consumer inventory," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 543-561, September.
    34. Silver, Mick & Heravi, Saeed, 2007. "Why elementary price index number formulas differ: Evidence on price dispersion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 874-883, October.
    35. Kevin J, Fox. & Iqbal A. Syed, 2016. "Price Discounts and the Measurement of Inflation: Further Results," Discussion Papers 2016-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    36. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
    37. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Snir, Avichai & Chen, Haipeng (Allan) & Levy, Daniel, 2022. "Zero-Ending Prices, Cognitive Convenience, and Price Rigidity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 203, pages 519-542.
    2. Ray, Sourav & Snir, Avichai & Levy, Daniel, 2023. "Retail Pricing Format and Rigidity of Regular Prices," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 1-1.
    3. Fei, Liguo & Wang, Yanqing, 2022. "Demand prediction of emergency materials using case-based reasoning extended by the Dempster-Shafer theory," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Adam Gorajek, 2018. "Econometric Perspectives on Economic Measurement," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Kevin J, Fox. & Iqbal A. Syed, 2016. "Price Discounts and the Measurement of Inflation: Further Results," Discussion Papers 2016-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    6. Iqbal A. Syed & Jan De Haan, 2017. "Age, Time, Vintage, And Price Indexes: Measuring The Depreciation Pattern Of Houses," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 580-600, January.
    7. Diewert, W. Erwin & Fox, Kevin J. & de Haan, Jan, 2016. "A newly identified source of potential CPI bias: Weekly versus monthly unit value price indexes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 169-172.
    8. Levy, Daniel & Chen, Haipeng (Allan) & Ray, Sourav & Charette, Elliot & Ling, Xiao & Zhao, Weihong & Bergen, Mark & Snir, Avichai, 2025. "Asymmetric price adjustment over the business cycle," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 0, pages 112450-1124.
    9. de Haan, Jan & Diewert, W. Erwin & Fox, Kevin J., 2015. "Weekly versus Monthly Unit Value Price Indexes," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2015-15, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 20 Jul 2015.
    10. Glandon, PJ, 2018. "Sales and the (Mis)measurement of price level fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 60-77.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kevin J, Fox. & Iqbal A. Syed, 2016. "Price Discounts and the Measurement of Inflation: Further Results," Discussion Papers 2016-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    2. Glandon, PJ, 2018. "Sales and the (Mis)measurement of price level fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 60-77.
    3. Knotek, Edward S., 2024. "The roles of price points and menu costs in price rigidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Nakamura, Alice O. & Nakamura, Emi & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2011. "Price dynamics, retail chains and inflation measurement," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 47-55, March.
    5. Giulietti, Monica & Otero, Jesús & Waterson, Michael, 2020. "Rigidities and adjustments of daily prices to costs: Evidence from supermarket data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. Maarten Dossche & Freddy Heylen & Dirk Van den Poel, 2010. "The Kinked Demand Curve and Price Rigidity: Evidence from Scanner Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 723-752, December.
    7. Holzer, Patrick Sebastian, 2020. "The effect of time-varying factors on promotional activity in the German milk market," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    8. Ray, Sourav & Snir, Avichai & Levy, Daniel, 2023. "Retail Pricing Format and Rigidity of Regular Prices," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 1-1.
    9. Berck, Peter & Brown, Jennifer & Perloff, Jeffrey M. & Villas-Boas, Sofia Berto, 2008. "Sales: Tests of theories on causality and timing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1257-1273, November.
    10. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2013. "Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 133-163, May.
    11. repec:upd:utmpwp:033 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Snir, Avichai & Chen, Haipeng (Allan) & Levy, Daniel, 2022. "Zero-Ending Prices, Cognitive Convenience, and Price Rigidity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 203, pages 519-542.
    13. Levy, Daniel & Snir, Avichai & Gotler, Alex & Chen, Haipeng (Allan), 2020. "Not all price endings are created equal: Price points and asymmetric price rigidity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue forthcomi.
    14. Alexis Antoniades & Sofronis Clerides & Mingzhi Xu, 2023. "Micro‐responses to shocks: pricing, promotion, and entry," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(3), pages 584-615, July.
    15. Abe, Naohito & 阿部, 修人 & Rao, D.S.Prasada, 2020. "Generalized Logarithmic Index Numbers with Demand Shocks: Bridging the Gap between Theory and Practice," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP20-1, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    16. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464.
    17. Judith A. Chevalier & Anil K. Kashyap, 2011. "Best Prices," NBER Working Papers 16680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Iqbal A. Syed, 2015. "Sales Spotter: An Algorithm to Identify Sale Prices in Point-of-Sale Data," Discussion Papers 2015-13, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    19. Nakamura, Emi & Steinsson, Jón, 2011. "Price setting in forward-looking customer markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 220-233.
    20. Katja Seim & Michael Sinkinson, 2016. "Mixed pricing in online marketplaces," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 129-155, June.
    21. Delajara Marcelo & Murillo Garza José Antonio, 2012. "Weekday with Low Prices: Evidence on Daily Seasonality of Foods, Beverages and Tobacco Prices," Working Papers 2012-09, Banco de México.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:191:y:2016:i:2:p:398-406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.