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Disinflation in steps and the Phillips curve: Israel 1986–2015

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  • Melnick, Rafi
  • Strohsal, Till

Abstract

A Phillips curve (PC) framework is utilized to study the challenging post-1985 disinflation process in Israel. The estimated PC is stable and has forecasting power. Based on endogenous structural break tests we find that actual and expected inflation are co-breaking. We argue that the step-like development of inflation is in line with shocks and monetary policy that changed inflationary expectations. The disinflation process was long, and a long-term commitment by both the Central Bank and the government was required. Credibility was achieved gradually and the transition from the last step of 10% to 2% inflation was accomplished by introducing an inflation targeting regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Melnick, Rafi & Strohsal, Till, 2017. "Disinflation in steps and the Phillips curve: Israel 1986–2015," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 145-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:145-161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.06.008
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    2. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rafi Melnick & Ari Kutai, 2023. "Information and the Formation of Inflation Expectations by Firms: Evidence from a Survey of Israeli Firms," NBER Working Papers 31507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Expected inflation; Opportunistic disinflation; Multiple breakpoint tests; Inflation targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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