IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v150y2025ics026156062400216x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Innovation’s false spring: U.S. export controls and Chinese patent quality

Author

Listed:
  • Kang, Yankun
  • Ma, Xin
  • Xie, Mi
  • Zhong, Ninghua

Abstract

This paper evaluates the effect of U.S. export restrictions, enacted in 2018, on China’s patent production. An analysis of patent-level datasets indicates a significant surge in Chinese patent filings in sanctioned technological domains. This quantitative growth, however, is accompanied by a decrease in patent quality, evidenced by reduced citation counts and market worth. Specifically, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have witnessed a substantial rise in patent filings post-2018, while private firms exhibit a more modest increase. Despite the surge in patent quantity, the overall quality of patents—particularly those originating from SOEs—has deteriorated significantly. This study contributes to the body of research concerning the economic consequences of the US-China trade dispute and offers original insights into the implications of trade sanctions on innovation quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Kang, Yankun & Ma, Xin & Xie, Mi & Zhong, Ninghua, 2025. "Innovation’s false spring: U.S. export controls and Chinese patent quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:150:y:2025:i:c:s026156062400216x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103229
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026156062400216X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103229?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Herkenhoff, Philipp & Krautheim, Sebastian & Semrau, Finn Ole & Steglich, Frauke, 2024. "Corporate Social Responsibility along the global value chain," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Gary Pisano & Pian Shu, 2020. "Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from US Patents," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 357-374, September.
    3. Manuel Trajtenberg, 1990. "A Penny for Your Quotes: Patent Citations and the Value of Innovations," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 21(1), pages 172-187, Spring.
    4. Esther Ann Bøler & Andreas Moxnes & Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe, 2015. "R&D, International Sourcing, and the Joint Impact on Firm Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3704-3739, December.
    5. John-Paul Ferguson & Gianluca Carnabuci, 2017. "Risky Recombinations: Institutional Gatekeeping in the Innovation Process," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 133-151, February.
    6. Rebecca Henderson & Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 1998. "Universities As A Source Of Commercial Technology: A Detailed Analysis Of University Patenting, 1965-1988," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 119-127, February.
    7. James S. Ang & Yingmei Cheng & Chaopeng Wu, 2014. "Does Enforcement of Intellectual Property Rights Matter in China? Evidence from Financing and Investment Choices in the High-Tech Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 332-348, May.
    8. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Haichao Fan & Yichuan Hu & Lixin Tang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2022. "Is the American Soft Power a Casualty of the Trade War?," NBER Working Papers 29999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Cui, Xiaomeng & Tang, Qu, 2024. "Extreme heat and rural household adaptation: Evidence from Northeast China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    11. Shu, Tao & Tian, Xuan & Zhan, Xintong, 2022. "Patent quality, firm value, and investor underreaction: Evidence from patent examiner busyness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1043-1069.
    12. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
    13. Li, Xibao, 2012. "Behind the recent surge of Chinese patenting: An institutional view," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 236-249.
    14. Nicholas Bloom & Mirko Draca & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 87-117.
    15. Ju, Jiandong & Ma, Hong & Wang, Zi & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2024. "Trade wars and industrial policy competitions: Understanding the US-China economic conflicts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 42-58.
    16. Chor, Davin & Li, Bingjing, 2024. "Illuminating the effects of the US-China tariff war on China’s economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    17. Hu, Albert G.Z. & Zhang, Peng & Zhao, Lijing, 2017. "China as number one? Evidence from China's most recent patenting surge," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 107-119.
    18. Michael König & Kjetil Storesletten & Zheng Song & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2022. "From Imitation to Innovation: Where Is All That Chinese R&D Going?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1615-1654, July.
    19. Christoph Grimpe & Katrin Hussinger, 2014. "Resource complementarity and value capture in firm acquisitions: The role of intellectual property rights," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(12), pages 1762-1780, December.
    20. Mari Sako & George Chondrakis & Paul M. Vaaler, 2016. "How Do Plural-Sourcing Firms Make and Buy? The Impact of Supplier Portfolio Design," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 1161-1182, October.
    21. Zhao Chen & Zhikuo Liu & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Daniel Yi Xu, 2021. "Notching R&D Investment with Corporate Income Tax Cuts in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(7), pages 2065-2100, July.
    22. Liu, Qing & Ma, Hong, 2020. "Trade policy uncertainty and innovation: Firm level evidence from China’s WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    23. Zheng, Gaoping & Wang, Shuxun & Xu, Yongxin, 2018. "Monetary stimulation, bank relationship and innovation: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 237-248.
    24. Paula Bustos, 2011. "Trade Liberalization, Exports, and Technology Upgrading: Evidence on the Impact of MERCOSUR on Argentinian Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 304-340, February.
    25. Hong Ma & Lingsheng Meng, 2023. "Heterogeneous impacts of the Section 301 tariffs: Evidence from the revision of product lists," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 164-190, February.
    26. Etzkowitz, Henry & Leydesdorff, Loet, 2000. "The dynamics of innovation: from National Systems and "Mode 2" to a Triple Helix of university-industry-government relations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 109-123, February.
    27. Tan, Youchao & Liu, Xiumei & Sun, Hanwen & Zeng, Cheng(Colin), 2022. "Population ageing, labour market rigidity and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(2).
    28. Lily H. Fang & Josh Lerner & Chaopeng Wu, 2017. "Intellectual Property Rights Protection, Ownership, and Innovation: Evidence from China," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(7), pages 2446-2477.
    29. Cao, Linyi & Jiang, Helu & Li, Guangwei & Zhu, Lijun, 2024. "Haste makes waste? Quantity-based subsidies under heterogeneous innovations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    30. Pengfei Han & Wei Jiang & Danqing Mei, 2024. "Mapping U.S.–China Technology Decoupling: Policies, Innovation, and Firm Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(12), pages 8386-8413, December.
    31. Cohn, Jonathan B. & Liu, Zack & Wardlaw, Malcolm I., 2022. "Count (and count-like) data in finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 529-551.
    32. He, Chuan & Mau, Karsten & Xu, Mingzhi, 2021. "Trade Shocks and Firms Hiring Decisions: Evidence from Vacancy Postings of Chinese Firms in the Trade War," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    33. Dang, Jianwei & Motohashi, Kazuyuki, 2015. "Patent statistics: A good indicator for innovation in China? Patent subsidy program impacts on patent quality," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 137-155.
    34. Hu, Albert Guangzhou & Jefferson, Gary H., 2009. "A great wall of patents: What is behind China's recent patent explosion?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 57-68, September.
    35. Wu, Howei & Lin, Jia & Wu, Ho-Mou, 2022. "Investigating the real effect of China’s patent surge: New evidence from firm-level patent quality data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 422-442.
    36. Sergio Correia & Paulo Guimarães & Tom Zylkin, 2020. "Fast Poisson estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 20(1), pages 95-115, March.
    37. Guellec, Dominique & van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno, 2007. "The Economics of the European Patent System: IP Policy for Innovation and Competition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199216987, Decembrie.
    38. Huang, Kenneth G. & Jia, Nan & Ge, Yeyanran, 2024. "Forced to innovate? Consequences of United States' anti-dumping sanctions on innovations of Chinese exporters," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1).
    39. Bronwyn H. Hall & Dietmar Harhoff, 2012. "Recent Research on the Economics of Patents," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 541-565, July.
    40. Shang-Jin Wei & Jianhuan Xu & Ge Yin & Xiaobo Zhang, 2023. "Mild Government Failure," NBER Working Papers 31178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Liu, Qing & Lu, Ruosi & Lu, Yi & Luong, Tuan Anh, 2021. "Import competition and firm innovation: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    42. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Matthieu Lequien & Marc J. Melitz, 2018. "The Impact of Exports on Innovation: Theory and Evidence," Working papers 678, Banque de France.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Yongmin & Jiang, Haiwei & Liang, Yousha & Pan, Shiyuan, 2022. "The impact of foreign direct investment on innovation: Evidence from patent filings and citations in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 917-945.
    2. Li, Xiaogang, 2020. "Innovation, market valuations, policy uncertainty and trade: Theory and evidence," ISU General Staff Papers 202001010800009179, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Leona Shao-Zhi Li & Yize Liu & Jia Yuan, 2024. "The effect of the U.S.–China trade war on Chinese corporate innovation: A curse or a blessing?," Working Papers 202418, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    4. Shen, Haomin & Gao, Yuan & Cheng, Xiaoke & Wang, Qi, 2024. "The impact of the U.S. export controls on Chinese firms' innovation: Evidence from Chinese high-tech firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).
    5. Cao, Linyi & Jiang, Helu & Li, Guangwei & Zhu, Lijun, 2024. "Haste makes waste? Quantity-based subsidies under heterogeneous innovations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. Rong, Zhao & Wu, Xiaokai & Boeing, Philipp, 2017. "The effect of institutional ownership on firm innovation: Evidence from Chinese listed firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1533-1551.
    7. Fang, Jing & He, Hui & Li, Nan, 2020. "China's rising IQ (Innovation Quotient) and growth: Firm-level evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    8. Weng, Shiqi & Rong, Zhao & Yu, Li, 2024. "Institutional site visits and corporate innovation: The role of analyst coverage," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Gao, Yunshu & Yin, Sisi & Ferrett, Ben & Gao, Bo, 2024. "FDI deregulation and firm innovation: Evidence from firm patents," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Kim, Kenneth A. & Xie, Hongjun & Zheng, Xiaojia, 2024. "Are R&D-intensive firms more resilient to trade shocks? Evidence from the U.S.–China trade war," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    11. Wang, Xu & Zhang, Xiaobo & Xie, Zhuan & Huang, Yiping, 2016. "Roads to innovation: Firm-level evidence from China," IFPRI discussion papers 1542, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen & Heidi Williams, 2019. "A toolkit of policies to promote innovation," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 10.
    13. Dai, Xiaoyong & Wang, Mengqi, 2024. "Unintended effects of tax incentives on firms’ strategic patenting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 1-24.
    14. Teichgraeber, Andreas & Van Reenen, John, 2022. "A policy toolkit to increase research and innovation in the European Union," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117801, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Shen, Binchao, 2025. "Intermediated trade and innovation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    16. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Gary Pisano & Pian Shu, 2020. "Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from US Patents," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 357-374, September.
    17. Feng, Gen-Fu & Zheng, Mingbo & Wen, Jun & Chang, Chun-Ping & Chen, Yin E., 2019. "The assessment of globalization on innovation in Chinese manufacturing firms," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 190-202.
    18. Stiebale, Joel & Vencappa, Dev, 2022. "Import competition and vertical integration: Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    19. Lin, Jia & Wu, Ho-Mou & Wu, Howei, 2021. "Could government lead the way? Evaluation of China's patent subsidy policy on patent quality," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    20. Ze Chen & Qiming Yang & Zhihao Wu & Jiajun Min, 2024. "A timely helping hand: China‐U.S. Trade War, government subsidy, and firm innovation," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(6), pages 3564-3588, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sanctions; Chinese patents output; Innovation quality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:150:y:2025:i:c:s026156062400216x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.