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Issues and strategies in ex-post evaluation of intervention against animal disease outbreaks and spread

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  • Fadiga, Mohamadou L.
  • Katjiuongua, Hikuepi B.

Abstract

Animal disease outbreaks pose a significant threat in terms of potential economic losses, reduced productivity, and negative impacts on public health, food security and nutrition. This paper considers four issues in ex-post evaluation of animal disease interventions: firstly, a counterfactual involves simulating disease trajectories without the intervention. But some diseases can become endemic or become dormant after an outbreak, making it a challenge to know the true trajectory without the intervention. Secondly, without adequate design of controls and treatments, how can the estimated impacts be attributed to a given intervention? Thirdly, how do we assess costs saved by the intervention? Fourthly, given data uncertainty, would a stochastic simulation give better estimates than a deterministic one in solving for key variables? This paper addresses these issues and proposes solutions that bridge the gap between household level analysis and macro-level simulations in modelling the impact of animal diseases outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Katjiuongua, Hikuepi B., 2014. "Issues and strategies in ex-post evaluation of intervention against animal disease outbreaks and spread," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 418-424.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:49:y:2014:i:p2:p:418-424
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.10.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Smith, Ron P., 2016. "Counterfactual analysis in macroeconometrics: An empirical investigation into the effects of quantitative easing," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 262-280.
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    5. Msangi, Siwa & Enahoro, Dolapo & Herrero, Mario & Magnan, Nicholas & Havlik, Petr & Notenbaert, An & Nelgen, Signe, 2014. "Integrating livestock feeds and production systems into agricultural multi-market models: The example of IMPACT," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 365-377.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baker, Derek & Enahoro, Dolapo, 2014. "Policy analysis and advocacy for livestock-based development: The gap between household-level analysis and higher-level models," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 361-364.
    2. Msangi, Siwa & Enahoro, Dolapo & Herrero, Mario & Magnan, Nicholas & Havlik, Petr & Notenbaert, An & Nelgen, Signe, 2014. "Integrating livestock feeds and production systems into agricultural multi-market models: The example of IMPACT," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 365-377.
    3. van Wijk, Mark T., 2014. "From global economic modelling to household level analyses of food security and sustainability: How big is the gap and can we bridge it?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 378-388.

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