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Issues and strategies in ex-post evaluation of intervention against animal disease outbreaks and spread

Listed author(s):
  • Fadiga, Mohamadou L.
  • Katjiuongua, Hikuepi B.
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    Animal disease outbreaks pose a significant threat in terms of potential economic losses, reduced productivity, and negative impacts on public health, food security and nutrition. This paper considers four issues in ex-post evaluation of animal disease interventions: firstly, a counterfactual involves simulating disease trajectories without the intervention. But some diseases can become endemic or become dormant after an outbreak, making it a challenge to know the true trajectory without the intervention. Secondly, without adequate design of controls and treatments, how can the estimated impacts be attributed to a given intervention? Thirdly, how do we assess costs saved by the intervention? Fourthly, given data uncertainty, would a stochastic simulation give better estimates than a deterministic one in solving for key variables? This paper addresses these issues and proposes solutions that bridge the gap between household level analysis and macro-level simulations in modelling the impact of animal diseases outbreaks.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Food Policy.

    Volume (Year): 49 (2014)
    Issue (Month): P2 ()
    Pages: 418-424

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:49:y:2014:i:p2:p:418-424
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.10.007
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    1. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Smith, Ron P., 2016. "Counterfactual analysis in macroeconometrics: An empirical investigation into the effects of quantitative easing," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 262-280.
    2. Aklesso Egbendewe-Mondzozo & Levan Elbakidze & Bruce A. McCarl & Michael P. Ward & John B. Carey, 2013. "Partial equilibrium analysis of vaccination as an avian influenza control tool in the U.S. poultry sector," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 111-123, 01.
    3. Pritchett, James G. & Thilmany, Dawn D. & Johnson, Kamina K., 2005. "Animal Disease Economic Impacts: A Survey of Literature and Typology of Research Approaches," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA), vol. 8(01).
    4. Msangi, Siwa & Enahoro, Dolapo & Herrero, Mario & Magnan, Nicholas & Havlik, Petr & Notenbaert, An & Nelgen, Signe, 2014. "Integrating livestock feeds and production systems into agricultural multi-market models: The example of IMPACT," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 365-377.
    5. Karl M. Rich & Alex Winter-Nelson, 2007. "An Integrated Epidemiological-Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease: Applications to the Southern Cone of South America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 682-697.
    6. Richard Bennett, 2003. "The 'Direct Costs'of Livestock Disease: The Development of a System of Models for the Analysis of 30 Endemic Livestock Diseases in Great Britain," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 55-71.
    7. Ezedinma, Chuma I. & Kormawa, P.M. & Chianu, Jonas, 2006. "Urban Household Demand For Meat And Meat Products In Nigeria: An Almost Ideal Demand System Analysis," FAMAN Papers 2006 54404, Farm Management Association of Nigeria (FAMAN).
    8. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G. & Seitzinger, Ann Hillberg, 2005. "Economic Modeling of Livestock Disease Outbreaks," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA), vol. 8(01).
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