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An expost economic assessment of the intervention against highly pathogenic avian influenza in Nigeria

Listed author(s):
  • Fadiga, Mohamadou L.
  • Okike, Iheanacho
  • Bett, Bernard
Registered author(s):

    This study assesses the intervention against avian influenza in Nigeria. It applied a simple compartmental model to define endemic and burn-out scenarios for the risk of spread of HPAI in Nigeria. It followed with the derivation of low and high mortality risks associated to each scenario. The estimated risk parameters were subsequently used to stochastically simulate the trajectory of the disease, had no intervention been carried out. Overall, the intervention costs US$ 41 million, which was yearly disbursed in various amounts over the 2006-2010 period. The key output variables (incremental net benefit, disease cost, and benefit cost ratio) were estimated for each randomly drawn risk parameter. With a 12% annual discount rate, the results show that the intervention was economically justified under the endemic scenario with high mortality risk. On average, incremental benefit under this scenario amounted to US$ 63.7 million, incremental net benefit to US$27.2 million, and benefit cost ratio estimated to 1.75.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/172414
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    Article provided by Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA) in its journal Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal.

    Volume (Year): (2014)
    Issue (Month): 1 (April)
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:aieabj:172414
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.aieaa.org/

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    1. Wolf, Christopher A., 2005. "Producer Livestock Disease Management Incentives and Decisions," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA), vol. 8(01).
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    5. Karl M. Rich & Alex Winter-Nelson, 2007. "An Integrated Epidemiological-Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease: Applications to the Southern Cone of South America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 682-697.
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