IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v138y2020i1p222-253.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Liquidity risk and exchange-traded fund returns, variances, and tracking errors

Author

Listed:
  • Bae, Kyounghun
  • Kim, Daejin

Abstract

We investigate the effect of exchange-traded fund (ETF) liquidity on ETF tracking errors, returns, and volatility in the US. We find that illiquid ETFs have large tracking errors. The effect is more pronounced when underlying assets are less liquid. Returns and liquidity of illiquid ETFs are more sensitive to underlying index returns or ETF market liquidity, or both. Thus, a positive liquidity premium exists in US ETF markets. The ETF variance could be larger than its net asst value variance owing to infrequent trading. In summary, illiquid ETFs are more likely to deviate from their underlying indexes and could be riskier than underlying portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Bae, Kyounghun & Kim, Daejin, 2020. "Liquidity risk and exchange-traded fund returns, variances, and tracking errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 222-253.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:138:y:2020:i:1:p:222-253
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.02.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X20301276
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.02.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2007. "Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1783-1831, November.
    2. Itzhak Ben-David & Francesco A. Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2016. "Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-64, Swiss Finance Institute.
    3. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    4. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    5. Edwin J. Elton, 2002. "Spiders: Where Are the Bugs?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 453-472, July.
    6. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    7. Doron Israeli & Charles M. C. Lee & Suhas A. Sridharan, 2017. "Is there a dark side to exchange traded funds? An information perspective," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1048-1083, September.
    8. Fotak, Veljko & Raman, Vikas & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2014. "Fails-to-deliver, short selling, and market quality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 493-516.
    9. Itzhak Ben‐David & Francesco Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2018. "Do ETFs Increase Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(6), pages 2471-2535, December.
    10. Zhi Da & Sophie Shive, 2018. "Exchange traded funds and asset return correlations," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(1), pages 136-168, January.
    11. Stratmann, Thomas & Welborn, John W., 2016. "Informed short selling, fails-to-deliver, and abnormal returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 81-102.
    12. Robert Battalio & Paul Schultz, 2011. "Regulatory Uncertainty and Market Liquidity: The 2008 Short Sale Ban's Impact on Equity Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2013-2053, December.
    13. Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2014. "The Empirical Analysis of Liquidity," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 8(4), pages 263-365, December.
    14. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    15. Boehmer, Beatrice & Boehmer, Ekkehart, 2003. "Trading your neighbor's ETFs: Competition or fragmentation?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1667-1703, September.
    16. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1996. "Market microstructure and asset pricing: On the compensation for illiquidity in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-464, July.
    17. Christopher P. Clifford & Jon A. Fulkerson & Bradford D. Jordan, 2014. "What Drives ETF Flows?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 619-642, August.
    18. Lee, Kuan-Hui, 2011. "The world price of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 136-161, January.
    19. Scott W. Barnhart & Stuart Rosenstein, 2010. "Exchange‐Traded Fund Introductions and Closed‐End Fund Discounts and Volume," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 973-994, November.
    20. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    21. Lo, Andrew W. & Craig MacKinlay, A., 1990. "An econometric analysis of nonsynchronous trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 181-211.
    22. Joel Hasbrouck, 2003. "Intraday Price Formation in U.S. Equity Index Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2375-2400, December.
    23. Eckbo, B. Espen & Norli, Oyvind, 2005. "Liquidity risk, leverage and long-run IPO returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 1-35, March.
    24. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    25. Giovanni Cespa & Thierry Foucault, 2014. "Illiquidity Contagion and Liquidity Crashes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(6), pages 1615-1660.
    26. Ananth Madhavan, 2014. "Exchange-Traded Funds: An Overview of Institutions, Trading, and Impacts," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 311-341, December.
    27. Tarun Chordia & Richard Roll & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, April.
    28. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    29. Sadka, Ronnie, 2010. "Liquidity risk and the cross-section of hedge-fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 54-71, October.
    30. Richard Roll & Eduardo Schwartz & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2007. "Liquidity and the Law of One Price: The Case of the Futures‐Cash Basis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2201-2234, October.
    31. Dannhauser, Caitlin D., 2017. "The impact of innovation: Evidence from corporate bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs)," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 537-560.
    32. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    33. Martin Cherkes & Jacob Sagi & Richard Stanton, 2009. "A Liquidity-Based Theory of Closed-End Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 257-297, January.
    34. Nashikkar, Amrut & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Mahanti, Sriketan, 2011. "Liquidity and Arbitrage in the Market for Credit Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 627-656, June.
    35. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    36. Agapova, Anna, 2011. "Conventional mutual index funds versus exchange-traded funds," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 323-343, May.
    37. Tang, Hongfei & Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor, 2013. "Solving the Return Deviation Conundrum of Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 309-342, February.
    38. Boni, Leslie, 2006. "Strategic delivery failures in U.S. equity markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-26, February.
    39. Huang, Roger D & Stoll, Hans R, 1994. "Market Microstructure and Stock Return Predictions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 179-213.
    40. Jeffrey Pontiff, 1996. "Costly Arbitrage: Evidence from Closed-End Funds," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1135-1151.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Damien KUNJAL, 2023. "The Role of Investor Attention in ETF Liquidity," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 7(2), pages 45-64.
    2. Perera, Devmali & Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T., 2022. "Is the tracking error time-varying? Evidence from agricultural ETCs," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Natalia Diniz-Maganini & Abdul A. Rasheed & Mahmut Yaşar & Hsia Hua Sheng, 2023. "Cross-listing and price efficiency: An institutional explanation," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(2), pages 233-257, March.
    4. Diana Barro & Antonella Basso & Stefania Funari & Guglielmo Alessandro Visentin, 2024. "The Effects of the Introduction of Volume-Based Liquidity Constraints in Portfolio Optimization with Alternative Investments," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-26, August.
    5. Devmali Perera & Jędrzej Białkowski & Martin T. Bohl, 2022. "Is the Tracking Error Time-Varying? Evidence from Agricultural ETCs," Working Papers in Economics 22/13, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    6. Mariano González-Sánchez & Eva M. Ibáñez Jiménez & Ana I. Segovia San Juan, 2021. "Market and Liquidity Risks Using Transaction-by-Transaction Information," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-14, July.
    7. Cortes, Gustavo S. & Gao, George P. & Silva, Felipe B.G. & Song, Zhaogang, 2022. "Unconventional monetary policy and disaster risk: Evidence from the subprime and COVID–19 crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Zhang, Pengcheng & Kong, Deli & Xu, Kunpeng & Qi, Jiayin, 2024. "Global economic policy uncertainty and the stability of cryptocurrency returns: The role of liquidity volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    9. Kim, Jinhwan & Cho, Hoon & Seok, Sangik, 2023. "Liquidity risk, return performance, and tracking error: Synthetic vs. Physical ETFs," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Goel, Garima & Ahluwalia, Eshan, 2021. "Do pricing efficiencies in Indian equity ETF market impact its performance?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kim, Jinhwan & Cho, Hoon & Seok, Sangik, 2023. "Liquidity risk, return performance, and tracking error: Synthetic vs. Physical ETFs," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2014. "The Empirical Analysis of Liquidity," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 8(4), pages 263-365, December.
    3. Atanasova, Christina & Weisskopf, Jean-Philippe, 2020. "The price of international equity ETFs: The role of relative liquidity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Agarwal, Vikas & Hanouna, Paul & Moussawi, Rabih & Stahel, Christof W., 2021. "Do ETFs increase the commonality in liquidity of underlying stocks?," CFR Working Papers 21-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    5. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
    6. Joey W. Yang & Lewis May & John Gould, 2023. "Exchange‐traded fund ownership and underlying stock mispricing," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(S1), pages 1417-1445, April.
    7. Saad, Mohsen & Samet, Anis, 2015. "Pricing, dynamics, and determinants of illiquidity risks: International evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 124-147.
    8. Szymon Stereńczak, 2020. "State-Dependent Stock Liquidity Premium: The Case of the Warsaw Stock Exchange," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, March.
    9. Lischewski, Judith & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2012. "Size, value and liquidity. Do They Really Matter on an Emerging Stock Market?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 8-25.
    10. Mika Vaihekoski, 2009. "Pricing of liquidity risk: empirical evidence from Finland," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(19), pages 1547-1557.
    11. Martin Hoesli & Anjeza Kadilli & Kustrim Reka, 2017. "Commonality in Liquidity and Real Estate Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 65-105, July.
    12. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    13. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Liquidity and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 249-268, February.
    14. Dong, Liang & Yu, Bo & Qin, Zhenjiang & Lam, Keith S.K., 2024. "Liquidity risk and expected returns in China’s stock market: A multidimensional liquidity approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    15. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    16. Ding, Xiaoya (Sara) & Ni, Yang & Zhong, Ligang, 2016. "Free float and market liquidity around the world," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 236-257.
    17. Saad, Mohsen & Samet, Anis, 2017. "Liquidity and the implied cost of equity capital," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 15-38.
    18. Erten, Irem & Okay, Nesrin, 2012. "Deciphering Liquidity Risk on the Istanbul Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 56148, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    19. Sanjiv Das & Paul Hanouna, 2010. "Run lengths and liquidity," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 127-152, April.
    20. Joanna Olbry�, 2014. "Is illiquidity risk priced? The case of the Polish medium-size emerging stock market," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(6), pages 513�536-5.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange-traded funds (ETFs); Liquidity; Tracking errors; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:138:y:2020:i:1:p:222-253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.