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Solving the Return Deviation Conundrum of Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds

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  • Tang, Hongfei
  • Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor

Abstract

The large deviation of the actual return of a leveraged exchange-traded fund (LETF) from the leveraged multiple of the underlying index return has drawn considerable attention from investors, regulators, and the financial media. Despite this attention, the sources and fundamental determinants of the LETF return deviation remain unidentified. This study constructs a clear, unified, objective, and executable framework that addresses the behaviors, sources, and determinants of the LETF compounding and noncompounding deviations. Our theoretical predictions and empirical results hold the promise of guiding investors, regulators, financial advisors, and portfolio managers toward a thorough understanding of the return behavior of LETFs.

Suggested Citation

  • Tang, Hongfei & Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor, 2013. "Solving the Return Deviation Conundrum of Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 309-342, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:48:y:2013:i:01:p:309-342_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bae, Kyounghun & Kim, Daejin, 2020. "Liquidity risk and exchange-traded fund returns, variances, and tracking errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 222-253.
    2. Ramesh Adhikari & Humnath Panta & M. Kabir Hassan, 2020. "Performance of ProShares Triple-Leveraged Equity ETFs," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-18.
    3. Yuan, Ying & Huang, Yizhao & Chen, Haoran, 2021. "Monthly-rebalanced leveraged exchange-traded products: Performance and mandatory rebalancing needs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Ivanov, Ivan T. & Lenkey, Stephen L., 2018. "Do leveraged ETFs really amplify late-day returns and volatility?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 36-56.
    5. Tang, Hongfei & Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor & Yang, Zihui, 2014. "Can international LETFs deliver their promised exposure to foreign markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 30-74.
    6. Hurlin, Christophe & Iseli, Grégoire & Pérignon, Christophe & Yeung, Stanley, 2019. "The counterparty risk exposure of ETF investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 215-230.
    7. Hongfei Tang & Xiaoqing Eleanor Xu, 2019. "Dissecting the tracking performance of regular and leveraged VIX ETPs," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 261-327, July.
    8. Rakowski, David & Shirley, Sara, 2020. "What drives the market for exchange-traded notes?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    9. Miu, Peter & Yueh, Meng-Lan & Han, Jing, 2021. "Performance of Japanese leveraged ETFs," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Min Dai & Steven Kou & H. Mete Soner & Chen Yang, 2023. "Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds with Market Closure and Frictions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 2517-2535, April.
    11. Hongfei Tang & Kangzhen Xie & Xiaoqing Eleanor Xu, 2022. "Real estate as a new equity market sector: Market responses and return comovement," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 431-467, June.
    12. Lakshithe Wagalath, 2013. "Modeling the rebalancing slippage of Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds," Working Papers 2013-FIN-02, IESEG School of Management.
    13. Lakshithe Wagalath, 2016. "Feedback effects and endogenous risk in financial markets," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 37(2), pages 39-74.
    14. Paolo Guasoni & Eberhard Mayerhofer, 2015. "The Limits of Leverage," Papers 1506.02802, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2017.
    15. Zhongjin Lu & Zhongling Qin, 2021. "Leveraged Funds and the Shadow Cost of Leverage Constraints," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1295-1338, June.
    16. Loviscek, Anthony & Tang, Hongfei & Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor, 2014. "Do leveraged exchange-traded products deliver their stated multiples?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 29-47.

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