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Optimal entry timing

Author

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  • Kolb, Aaron M.

Abstract

A player of privately known strength chooses when to enter a market, and an incumbent chooses whether to compete or concede. Information about the potential entrant's type is revealed publicly according to an exogenous news process and the timing of entry. I analyze stationary equilibria using the public belief as a state variable. No equilibria in pure strategies exist, and smooth-pasting conditions need not hold. Under both D1 and a novel refinement, the informed player has nondecreasing value functions and her strategy has the following structure: for high states, both types enter with certainty; for a possibly empty interval of intermediate states, no type enters; and for low states, the high type enters while the low type mixes. I obtain closed form solutions and analyze comparative statics for such equilibria. The welfare effects of the presence of news, relative to no news, depend on the starting belief; however, for a fixed equilibrium, a marginal increase in news quality always helps the informed player regardless of her type and always hurts total welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Kolb, Aaron M., 2015. "Optimal entry timing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 973-1000.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:157:y:2015:i:c:p:973-1000
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2015.03.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. van Leeuwen, Boris & Offerman, Theo & van de Ven, Jeroen, 2018. "Fight or Flight : Endogenous Timing in Conflicts," Discussion Paper 2018-052, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Dilmé, Francesc, 2019. "Dynamic quality signaling with hidden actions," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 116-136.
    3. Philipp Denter & John Morgan & Dana Sisak, 2022. "Showing Off or Laying Low? The Economics of Psych-outs," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 529-580, February.
    4. Lang, Ruitian, 2019. "Try before you buy: A theory of dynamic information acquisition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1057-1093.
    5. I. Sebastian Buhai, 2025. "Real Option AI: Reversibility, Silence, and the Release Ladder," Papers 2511.16958, arXiv.org.
    6. Kolb, Aaron M., 2019. "Strategic real options," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 344-383.
    7. Raphael Boleslavsky, 2023. "Waiting for Fake News," Papers 2304.04053, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    8. Bloch, Francis & Fabrizi, Simona & Lippert, Steffen, 2022. "Hiding and herding in market entry," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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