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Competitive experimentation with private information: The survivor's curse

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  • Moscarini, Giuseppe
  • Squintani, Francesco

Abstract

We study a winner-take-all R&D race between two firms that are privately informed about the arrival rate of an invention. Over time, each firm only observes whether the opponent left the race or not. The equilibrium displays a strong herding effect, that we call a 'survivor's curse.' Unlike in the case of symmetric information, the two firms may quit the race (nearly) simultaneously even when their costs and benefits for research differ significantly.

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  • Moscarini, Giuseppe & Squintani, Francesco, 2010. "Competitive experimentation with private information: The survivor's curse," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 639-660, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:145:y:2010:i:2:p:639-660
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Ufuk Akcigit & Qingmin Liu, 2011. "The Role of Information in Competitive Experimentation," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000321, David K. Levine.
    3. Song, Yangbo & Zhao, Mofei, 2021. "Dynamic R&D competition under uncertainty and strategic disclosure," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 169-210.
    4. Murto, Pauli & Välimäki, Juuso, 2013. "Delay and information aggregation in stopping games with private information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2404-2435.
    5. Ozdenoren, Emre & Hoppe-Wewetzer, Heidrun C. & Katsenos, Georgios, 2019. "Experimentation, Learning, and Preemption," CEPR Discussion Papers 13483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Osnat Zohar, 2019. "Boom-Bust Cycles of Learning, Investment and Disagreement," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.06, Bank of Israel.
    7. Cary Deck & Erik O. Kimbrough, 2017. "Experimenting with Contests for Experimentation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(2), pages 391-406, October.
    8. Bo Chen & Bo Chen & Dmitriy Knyazev, 2022. "Information disclosure in dynamic research contests," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 53(1), pages 113-137, March.
    9. Francis Bloch & Simona Fabrizi & Steffen Lippert, 2015. "Learning and collusion in new markets with uncertain entry costs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 58(2), pages 273-303, February.
    10. Wagner, Peter A. & Klein, Nicolas, 2022. "Strategic investment and learning with private information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    11. Bobtcheff, Catherine & Mariotti, Thomas & Levy, Raphaël, 2021. "Negative results in science: Blessing or (winner’s) curse," TSE Working Papers 21-1202, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    12. Rosenberg, Dinah & Salomon, Antoine & Vieille, Nicolas, 2013. "On games of strategic experimentation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 31-51.
    13. Keller, Godfrey & Rady, Sven, 2020. "Undiscounted bandit games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 43-61.
    14. Asaf Cohen & Eilon Solan, 2013. "Bandit Problems with Lévy Processes," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(1), pages 92-107, February.
    15. Wagner, Peter A., 2018. "Who goes first? Strategic delay under information asymmetry," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), January.
    16. Keller, Godfrey & Rady, Sven, 2015. "Breakdowns," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(1), January.
    17. Boyarchenko, Svetlana, 2021. "Inefficiency of sponsored research," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    18. Bloch, Francis & Fabrizi, Simona & Lippert, Steffen, 2022. "Hiding and herding in market entry," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    19. Wagner, Peter, 2015. "Who goes first? Strategic Delay and Learning by Waiting," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 500, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    20. Kolb, Aaron M., 2015. "Optimal entry timing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 973-1000.

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