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Competitive experimentation with private information: The survivor's curse

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  • Moscarini, Giuseppe
  • Squintani, Francesco

Abstract

We study a winner-take-all R&D race between two firms that are privately informed about the arrival rate of an invention. Over time, each firm only observes whether the opponent left the race or not. The equilibrium displays a strong herding effect, that we call a 'survivor's curse.' Unlike in the case of symmetric information, the two firms may quit the race (nearly) simultaneously even when their costs and benefits for research differ significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Moscarini, Giuseppe & Squintani, Francesco, 2010. "Competitive experimentation with private information: The survivor's curse," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 639-660, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:145:y:2010:i:2:p:639-660
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Francis Bloch & Simona Fabrizi & Steffen Lippert, 2015. "Learning and collusion in new markets with uncertain entry costs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 58(2), pages 273-303, February.
    2. Wagner, Peter, 2015. "Who goes first? Strategic Delay and Learning by Waiting," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 500, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    3. Ganglmair, Bernhard & Simcoe, Timothy & Tarantino, Emanuele, 2018. "Learning When to Quit: An Empirical Model of Experimentation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ufuk Akcigit & Qingmin Liu, 2011. "The Role of Information in Competitive Experimentation," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000321, David K. Levine.
    5. Keller, Godfrey & Rady, Sven, 2015. "Undiscounted Bandit Games," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 520, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    6. Murto, Pauli & Välimäki, Juuso, 2013. "Delay and information aggregation in stopping games with private information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2404-2435.
    7. Rosenberg, Dinah & Salomon, Antoine & Vieille, Nicolas, 2013. "On games of strategic experimentation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 31-51.
    8. Bernhard Ganglmair & Timothy Simcoe & Emanuele Tarantino, 2018. "Learning When to Quit: An Empirical Model of Experimentation," Working Papers id:12569, eSocialSciences.
    9. Keller, Godfrey & Rady, Sven, 2015. "Breakdowns," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(1), January.
    10. Kolb, Aaron M., 2015. "Optimal entry timing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 973-1000.
    11. Wagner, Peter A., 2018. "Who goes first? Strategic delay under information asymmetry," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), January.
    12. Cary Deck & Erik O. Kimbrough, 2016. "Experimenting with Contests for Experimentation," Discussion Papers dp16-08, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.

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