Delay and information aggregation in stopping games with private information
We consider equilibrium timing decisions in a model with a large number of players and informational externalities. The players have private information about a common payoff parameter that determines the optimal time to invest. They learn from each other in real time by observing past investment decisions. We develop new methods of analysis for such large games, and we give a full characterization of symmetric equilibria. We show that the equilibrium statistical inferences are based on an exponential learning model. Although the beliefs converge to truth, learning takes place too late. Ex-ante welfare is strictly between that without observational learning and that with full information.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gale, D. & Chamley, C., 1992.
"Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment,"
10, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Chamley, Christophe & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1065-85, September.
- Jeremy Bulow & Paul Klemperer, 1991.
"Rational Frenzies and Crashes,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dan Levin & James Peck, 2005.
"Investment Dynamics with Common and Private Values,"
666156000000000607, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Levin, Dan & Peck, James, 2008. "Investment dynamics with common and private values," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 114-139, November.
- Wolfgang Pesendorfer & Jeroen M. Swinkels, 1995.
"The Loser's Curse and Information Aggregation in Common Value Auctions,"
1147, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Wolfgang Pesendorfer & Jeroen M. Swinkels, 1997. "The Loser's Curse and Information Aggregation in Common Value Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1247-1282, November.
- Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equilization in the Adoption of New Technology," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401, July.
- Araujo, Aloisio & Mas-Colell, Andreu, 1978. "Notes on the smoothing of aggregate demand," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 113-127, September.
- Chamley, Christophe, 2004. "Delays and equilibria with large and small information in social learning," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 477-501, June.
- Ilan Kremer, 2002. "Information Aggregation in Common Value Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1675-1682, July.
- Pauli Murto & Juuso Välimäki, 2011. "Learning and Information Aggregation in an Exit Game," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1426-1461.
- Grenadier, Steven R, 1999. "Information Revelation through Option Exercise," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 95-129.
- Moscarini, Giuseppe & Squintani, Francesco, 2010. "Competitive experimentation with private information: The survivor's curse," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 639-660, March.
- Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992.
"A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
- Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:148:y:2013:i:6:p:2404-2435. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.