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Delay and information aggregation in stopping games with private information


  • Murto, Pauli
  • Välimäki, Juuso


We consider equilibrium timing decisions in a model with a large number of players and informational externalities. The players have private information about a common payoff parameter that determines the optimal time to invest. They learn from each other in real time by observing past investment decisions. We develop new methods of analysis for such large games, and we give a full characterization of symmetric equilibria. We show that the equilibrium statistical inferences are based on an exponential learning model. Although the beliefs converge to truth, learning takes place too late. Ex-ante welfare is strictly between that without observational learning and that with full information.

Suggested Citation

  • Murto, Pauli & Välimäki, Juuso, 2013. "Delay and information aggregation in stopping games with private information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2404-2435.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:148:y:2013:i:6:p:2404-2435 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2013.07.022

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Chamley, Christophe, 2004. "Delays and equilibria with large and small information in social learning," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 477-501, June.
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    7. Wolfgang Pesendorfer & Jeroen M. Swinkels, 1997. "The Loser's Curse and Information Aggregation in Common Value Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1247-1282, November.
    8. Moscarini, Giuseppe & Squintani, Francesco, 2010. "Competitive experimentation with private information: The survivor's curse," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 639-660, March.
    9. Grenadier, Steven R, 1999. "Information Revelation through Option Exercise," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 95-129.
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    13. Pauli Murto & Juuso Välimäki, 2011. "Learning and Information Aggregation in an Exit Game," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1426-1461.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wagner, Peter A., 2018. "Who goes first? Strategic delay under information asymmetry," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), January.
    2. Murto, Pauli & Välimäki, Juuso, 2015. "Large common value auctions with risk averse bidders," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 60-74.
    3. Leoni, Patrick & Lundtofte, Frederik, 2017. "Information, stochastic dominance and bidding: The case of Treasury auctions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 80-82.
    4. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Kern, Johannes, 2015. "Repeated games in continuous time as extensive form games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-57.

    More about this item


    Information aggregation; Observational learning; Dynamic games;

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness


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