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  • Keller, Godfrey

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Oxford)

  • Rady, Sven

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Bonn)

We study a continuous-time game of strategic experimentation in which the players try to assess the failure rate of some new equipment or technology. Breakdowns occur at the jump times of a Poisson process whose unknown intensity is either high or low. In marked contrast to existing models, we find that the cooperative value function does not exhibit smooth pasting at the efficient cut-off belief. This finding extends to the boundaries between continuation and stopping regions in Markov perfect equilibria. We characterize the unique symmetric equilibrium, construct a class of asymmetric equilibria, and elucidate the impact of bad versus good Poisson news on equilibrium outcomes.

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File URL: http://econtheory.org/ojs/index.php/te/article/viewFile/20150175/12321/375
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Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Theoretical Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2015)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:the:publsh:1670
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econtheory.org

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  1. Keller, Godfrey & Rady, Sven, 2009. "Strategic Experimentation with Poisson Bandits," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 260, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  2. Daron Acemoglu & Kostas Bimpikis & Asuman Ozdaglar, 2011. "Experimentation, Patents, and Innovation," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 37-77, February.
  3. Godfrey Keller & Sven Rady, 1998. "Optimal Experimentation in a Changing Environment," Game Theory and Information 9801001, EconWPA.
  4. Bruno Biais & Thomas Mariotti & Jean-Charles Rochet & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2010. "Large risks, limited liability, and dynamic moral hazard," Working Papers 245707, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
  5. Dirk Bergemann & Ulrich Hege, 2001. "The Financing of Innovation: Learning and Stopping," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1292R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Oct 2004.
  6. Decamps, Jean-Paul & Mariotti, Thomas, 2004. "Investment timing and learning externalities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 80-102, September.
  7. Dinah Rosenberg & Eilon Solan & Nicolas Vieille, 2007. "Social Learning in One-Arm Bandit Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1591-1611, November.
  8. Erhan Bayraktar & Hao Xing, 2009. "Regularity of the Optimal Stopping Problem for Jump Diffusions," Papers 0902.2479, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2012.
  9. Keller, R Godfrey & Rady, Sven, 2001. "Price Dispersion and Learning in a Dynamic Differentiated-Goods Duopoly," CEPR Discussion Papers 2919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Bergemann, Dirk & Hege, Ulrich, 1998. "Venture capital financing, moral hazard, and learning," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 703-735, August.
  11. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 5474, March.
  12. Hugo A. Hopenhayn & Francesco Squintani, 2011. "Preemption Games with Private Information," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(2), pages 667-692.
  13. David G. Pearce & Dilip Abreu & Paul R. Milgrom, 1988. "Information and Timing in Repeated Partnerships," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 875, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Dumas, Bernard, 1991. "Super contact and related optimality conditions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 675-685, October.
  15. Simon Board & Moritz Meyer‐ter‐Vehn, 2013. "Reputation for Quality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(6), pages 2381-2462, November.
  16. Bruno Strulovici, 2008. "Learning While Voting: Determinants of Collective Experimentation," Economics Series Working Papers 2008-WO8, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  17. Alessandro Bonatti, 2011. "Menu Pricing and Learning," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 124-63, August.
  18. Bruno Strulovici & Martin Szydlowski, 2012. "On the Smoothness of Value Functions," Discussion Papers 1542, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  19. Moscarini, Giuseppe & Squintani, Francesco, 2010. "Competitive experimentation with private information: The survivor's curse," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 639-660, March.
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