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Super- and submodularity of stopping games with random observations

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  • Svetlana Boyarchenko

    (The University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

Models of learning and experimentation based on two-armed Poisson bandits addressed several important aspects related to strategic and motivational learning, but they are not suitable to study effects that accumulate over time. We propose a new class of models of strategic experimentation which are almost as tractable as exponential models, but incorporate such realistic features as dependence of the expected rate of news arrival on the time elapsed since the start of an experiment. In these models, the experiment is stopped before news is realized whenever the rate of arrival of news reaches a critical level. This leads to longer experimentation times for experiments with possible breakthroughs than for equivalent experiments with failures. We also show that the game with conclusive failures is supermodular, and the game with conclusive breakthroughs is submodular.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Boyarchenko, 2020. "Super- and submodularity of stopping games with random observations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 70(4), pages 983-1022, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:70:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s00199-019-01198-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-019-01198-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Rabah Amir, 2020. "Special Issue: Supermodularity and Monotonicity in Economics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 70(4), pages 907-911, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stopping games; Supermodular games; Time-inhomogeneous Poisson process;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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