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Weathering the ride: Experimental evidence on transport pricing, climate extremes, and future travel demand

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  • Christensen, Peter
  • Osman, Adam
  • Stocker, Abigail

Abstract

The future of travel will be characterized by changes in weather patterns and changes in transportation technology. How will these forces interact? We explore this question by utilizing a unique randomized experiment with Uber riders in Cairo, Egypt. We consider how very hot days (>35 °C/95 °F) affect transportation choices, how a sizeable price decrease (simulating a future with autonomous vehicles and access to cheaper transportation) changes travel, and how the interaction of these two elements affects choices. We find that while travel will increase significantly in response to the price decrease, extreme weather dampens this effect by 21%. Individuals receiving subsidies also shift away from public transportation modes and towards private transportation modes, except when the public transit option is air-conditioned. These results provide important insights for policymakers when considering optimal travel policy in the face of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Christensen, Peter & Osman, Adam & Stocker, Abigail, 2024. "Weathering the ride: Experimental evidence on transport pricing, climate extremes, and future travel demand," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:125:y:2024:i:c:s0095069624000524
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102978
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments

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