Understanding the attendance at cultural venues and events with stochastic preference models

This study proposes an alternative approach to the usual cognitive investigation of cultural venue and event attendance. This approach is based on stochastic preference theory. Specifically, the study utilises two well-known stochastic models of consumer behaviour: the NBD model and NBD-Dirichlet model to predict attendance behaviour at cultural venues and events. Using data from a large national survey across a range of cultural venues and events in Australia, including art galleries, museums, zoological parks and aquariums, botanic gardens, archives, music concerts, theatre performances, dance performances, musicals and operas, and cinemas, the study shows that stochastic preference theory is able to predict the attendance at cultural venues and events. This theory has important implications for marketers of cultural venues and events, such as which segments of attendees should be targeted, predicting future attendance behaviour, as well as evaluating the effectiveness of marketing activities such as price promotion and advertising.