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A comparative study of the probability of default for global financial firms

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  • Câmara, António
  • Popova, Ivilina
  • Simkins, Betty

Abstract

This article presents a modification of Merton’s (1976) ruin option pricing model to estimate the implied probability of default from stock and option market prices. To test the model, we analyze all global financial firms with traded options in the US and focus on the subprime mortgage crisis period. We compare the performance of the implied probability of default from our model to the expected default frequencies based on the Moody’s KMV model and agency credit ratings by constructing cumulative accuracy profiles (CAP) and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). We find that the probability of default estimates from our model are equal or superior to other credit risk measures studied based on CAP and ROC. In particular, during the subprime crisis our model surpassed credit ratings and matched or exceeded KMV in anticipating the magnitude of the crisis. We have also found some initial evidence that adding off-balance-sheet derivatives exposure improves the performance of the KMV model.

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  • Câmara, António & Popova, Ivilina & Simkins, Betty, 2012. "A comparative study of the probability of default for global financial firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 717-732.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:3:p:717-732
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.02.019
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    2. Xing Li & Xiangyu Ge & Wei Fan & Hao Zheng, 2021. "Research on Spatial Correlation Characteristics and Their Spatial Spillover Effect of Local Government Debt Risks in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-32, March.
    3. Anton George & Cheptiş Alexandra & Vasilca Miruna-Mihaela & Vid Alin-Ioan, 2022. "Estimating the value creation probability of mergers and acquisitions events using option pricing models Evidence from Europe and USA," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 16(1), pages 203-216, August.
    4. Yujing Gong & Kung-Cheng Ho, 2018. "Does corporate social responsibility matter for corporate stability? Evidence from China," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(5), pages 2291-2319, September.
    5. Lili Li & Jun Yang & Xin Zou, 2016. "A study of credit risk of Chinese listed companies: ZPP versus KMV," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2697-2710, June.
    6. Dibooglu, Sel & Cevik, Emrah I. & Tamimi, Hussein A. Hassan Al, 2022. "Credit default risk in Islamic and conventional banks: Evidence from a GARCH option pricing model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 396-411.
    7. Bo Young Chang & Greg Orosi, 2020. "A simple method for extracting the probability of default from American put option prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1535-1547, October.
    8. Zhu, Xiaoyan & Cao, Yunzhi & Wu, Jinwei & Liu, He & Bei, Xiaoqiang, 2022. "Optimum operational schedule and accounts receivable financing in a production supply chain considering hierarchical industrial status and uncertain yield," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(3), pages 1142-1154.
    9. Bo Young Chang & Greg Orosi, 2020. "A Simple Method for Extracting the Probability of Default from American Put Option Prices," Staff Working Papers 20-15, Bank of Canada.
    10. Turalay Kenc & Emrah Ismail Cevik, 2021. "Estimating volatility clustering and variance risk premium effects on bank default indicators," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1373-1392, November.
    11. Abinzano, Isabel & Gonzalez-Urteaga, Ana & Muga, Luis & Sanchez, Santiago, 2022. "Lagged accuracy in credit-risk measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    12. Umar, Muhammad & Ji, Xiangfeng & Mirza, Nawazish & Rahat, Birjees, 2021. "The impact of resource curse on banking efficiency: Evidence from twelve oil producing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Sun, Wenbin & Ding, Zhihua & Xu, Xiaobo & Cui, Kacie, 2020. "Internationalization and firm default risk: The roles of environmental dynamism and marketing capability," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 142-153.
    14. Alejandro Bernales & Thanos Verousis & Nikolaos Voukelatos & Mengyu Zhang, 2020. "What do we know about individual equity options?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 67-91, January.
    15. George ANTON & Cosmin-Octavian CEPOI & Cătălin-Emilian HUIDUMAC-PETRESCU, 2022. "Estimating Probability of Default for Systemically Important Financial Institutions during Covid-19 Pandemic. Evidence from Europe and USA," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 44-53, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default probabilities; Financial crises; Option pricing; KMV model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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