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Forecasting the urban skyline with extreme value theory


  • Auerbach, Jonathan
  • Wan, Phyllis


The world’s urban population is expected to grow fifty percent by the year 2050 and exceed six billion. The major challenges confronting cities, such as sustainability, safety, and equality, will depend on the infrastructure developed to accommodate the increase. Urban planners have long debated the consequences of vertical expansion—the concentration of residents by constructing tall buildings—over horizontal expansion—the dispersal of residents by extending urban boundaries. Yet relatively little work has predicted the vertical expansion of cities and quantified the likelihood and therefore urgency of these consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Auerbach, Jonathan & Wan, Phyllis, 2020. "Forecasting the urban skyline with extreme value theory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 814-828.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:3:p:814-828
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.004

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    References listed on IDEAS

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