Determinants of firms’ default on unsecured loans in the P2P crowdfunding market

We investigate the payback performance of small businesses’ funded loans, and its determinants, in the Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending crowdfunding market. We do so by analysing a dataset of 1000 small businesses’ unsecured funded loans, via the American online P2P lending funding website Prosper.com. As these loans are unsecured, interest rates are relatively high (18.5% on average in our data base). As a result, payback is by no means straightforward. Indeed, we find 27% of all funded loans in our sample to default. Hence, it is particularly important in this market to know which factors determine payback performance. A novelty of our paper is that we are able to distinguish empirically between new and established firms in this market. Our results highlight that also in P2P lending, borrower reputation — stipulated by credit grade and repayment history — continues to be the single most dominant determinant of payback over loan default, especially for established firms. However, in contrast to conventional financing theory, we found that borrowers’ credit grade is only weakly relevant in determining risks of default of new businesses and that new firms are not more likely to default when compared to established firms. Selection effects may play a role here, in that only high-risk established firms look for unsecured online P2P finance as they are more likely than lower risk established firms to have been unable to get finance in the more traditional markets. This suggests that the liability of newness does not hold in this market. Nevertheless, among new firms, and in contrast to established firms, inclusion of a picture in the loan application was found to be an additional quality signal, positively associated with payback performance. This suggests the importance of visual information as a means of reducing uncertainty and signalling lower risk to financiers.