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Starting behind and staying behind in South Africa

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  • Spaull, Nicholas
  • Kotze, Janeli

Abstract

This study quantifies a year's worth of mathematics learning in South Africa (0.3 standard deviations) and uses this measure to develop empirically calibrated learning trajectories. Two main findings are (1) only the top 16% of South African Grade 3 children are performing at an appropriate Grade 3 level. (2) The learning gap between the poorest 60% of students and the wealthiest 20% of students is approximately three Grade-levels in Grade 3, growing to four Grade-levels by Grade 9. The paper concludes by arguing that the later in life we attempt to repair early learning deficits in mathematics, the costlier the remediation becomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Spaull, Nicholas & Kotze, Janeli, 2015. "Starting behind and staying behind in South Africa," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 13-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:injoed:v:41:y:2015:i:c:p:13-24
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijedudev.2015.01.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pritchett, Lant & Beatty, Amanda, 2012. "The Negative Consequences of Overambitious Curricula in Developing Countries," Working Paper Series rwp12-035, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jones, Sam, 2016. "How does classroom composition affect learning outcomes in Ugandan primary schools?," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 66-78.
    2. Shinice Jackson & Derek Yu, 2023. "Re-examining the Multidimensional Poverty Index of South Africa," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Martin Gustafsson & Carol Nuga Deliwe, 2020. "How is the COVID-19 pandemic affecting educational quality in South Africa? Evidence to date and future risks," Working Papers 23/2020, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    4. Lewis Sidney McLean & Servaas van der Berg, 2017. "Succeeding against the odds: A quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of IkamvaYouth," Working Papers 05/2017, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    5. Servaas van der Berg, 2015. "What the Annual National Assessments can tell us about learning deficits over the education system and the school career year," Working Papers 18/2015, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    6. Janeli Kotzé, 2015. "The readiness of the South African education system for a pre-Grade R year," Working Papers 15/2015, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    7. Zwanga TSHIDZUMBA & Shonisani Agnes MULOVHEDZI, 2025. "Exploring Factors Influencing The Choice Of Reading Strategies In The Foundation Phase," Social Sciences and Education Research Review, Department of Communication, Journalism and Education Sciences, University of Craiova, vol. 12(2), pages 270-279, December.
    8. Hofmeyr, Heleen, 2022. "Why do girls do better? Unpacking South Africa’s gender gap in PIRLS and TIMSS," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    9. Heleen Hofmeyr, 2019. "Performance Beyond Expectations: Academic Resilience in South Africa," Working Papers 19/2019, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    10. Asmus Zoch, 2017. "The effect of neighbourhoods and school quality on education and labour market outcomes in South Africa," Working Papers 08/2017, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    11. Inneth B. Makofane & Simon M. Ndlovu & Medwin D. Sepadi & Hunadi Mphahlele & Mahlapahlapana J. Themane & Ronny Mkhonto, 2025. "Factors Contributing to the Underperformance of Grades 8 and 9 Secondary School Learners in South Africa: A Scoping Review," SAGE Open, , vol. 15(4), pages 21582440251, October.
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    13. Stephen Taylor & Patricia Watson, 2015. "The impact of study guides on “matric” performance: Evidence from a randomised experiment," Working Papers 13/2015, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    14. Heleen Hofmeyr, 2020. "South Africa’s Pro-Girl Gap in PIRLS and TIMSS: How Much Can Be Explained?," Working Papers 17/2020, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    15. Beatty, Amanda & Berkhout, Emilie & Bima, Luhur & Pradhan, Menno & Suryadarma, Daniel, 2021. "Schooling progress, learning reversal: Indonesia’s learning profiles between 2000 and 2014," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    16. Nicholas Spaull, 2016. "Disentangling the language effect in South African schools: Measuring the impact of ‘language of assessment’ in grade 3 literacy and numeracy," Working Papers 19/2016, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    17. Marisa von Fintel & Servaas van der Berg, 2017. "What a difference a good school makes! Persistence in academic performance and the impact of school quality," Working Papers 07/2017, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics, revised 2017.
    18. Crawfurd, Lee, 2021. "Accounting for repetition and dropout in contemporaneous cross-section learning profiles: Evidence from Rwanda," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    19. Alcott, Benjamin & Rose, Pauline, 2017. "Learning in India’s primary schools: How do disparities widen across the grades?," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 42-51.
    20. M.S Baloyi & M.G. Muremela & N. T. Makhwanya & A. P. Kutame & B.T. Gamede & O. A. Ajani, 2023. "Challenges confronting rural physical science educators in enhancing Grade 12 Performance," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 12(9), pages 450-459, December.
    21. Servaas van der Berg & Gabrielle Wills & Rebecca Selkirk & Charles Adams & Chris van Wyk, 2019. "The cost of repetition in South Africa," Working Papers 13/2019, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    22. Oscar David Marcenaro‐Gutierrez & Luis Alejandro Lopez‐Agudo, 2020. "Does Teacher Subject Knowledge Contribute to Student Academic Performance in Developing and Least Developed Countries?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(3), pages 267-297, September.
    23. Johan Fourie, 2016. "The long walk to economic freedom after apartheid, and the road ahead," Working Papers 11/2016, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.

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