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The evaluation of forest crop damages due to climate change. An application of Dempster-Shafer method

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  • Bernetti, Iacopo
  • Ciampi, Christian
  • Fagarazzi, Claudio
  • Sacchelli, Sandro

Abstract

In order to assess damage risk caused by climate change in forest areas, Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy measures were applied to develop a framework for the estimation of economic forest damage. According to the definition of risk supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a function of hazard and resilience lines of evidence was defined. The results of the hazard and resilience assessment were used to develop an economic framework based on Faustmann studies. The evaluation model, implemented through a spatial analysis procedure, was carried out linking Faustmann formula with hazard and resilience raster maps. The model permitted to estimate in monetary terms two possible costs to be supported: the first one is expressed as the expected damage to the forest crop on the basis of the current obtainable woody assortments and the second one referred to the potential expenses to pay in order to mitigate the risk. Finally, the framework was tested on an area of central Italy (Tuscany region).

Suggested Citation

  • Bernetti, Iacopo & Ciampi, Christian & Fagarazzi, Claudio & Sacchelli, Sandro, 2011. "The evaluation of forest crop damages due to climate change. An application of Dempster-Shafer method," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 285-297, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:foreco:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:285-297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Lohmander, 2000. "Optimal sequential forestry decisions under risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 95(1), pages 217-228, January.
    2. Cheng, Ching-Hsue & Lin, Yin, 2002. "Evaluating the best main battle tank using fuzzy decision theory with linguistic criteria evaluation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 174-186, October.
    3. Gadaud, Juliette & Rambonilaza, Mbolatiana, 2010. "Amenity values and payment schemes for free recreation services from non-industrial private forest properties: A French case study," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 297-311, December.
    4. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801, January.
    5. Hildebrandt, Patrick & Knoke, Thomas, 2011. "Investment decisions under uncertainty--A methodological review on forest science studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
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    1. Knoke, Thomas & Gosling, Elizabeth & Thom, Dominik & Chreptun, Claudia & Rammig, Anja & Seidl, Rupert, 2021. "Economic losses from natural disturbances in Norway spruce forests – A quantification using Monte-Carlo simulations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    2. Cozzi, Mario & Viccaro, Mauro & Di Napoli, Francesco & Fagarazzi, Claudio & Tirinnanzi, Alessandro & Romano, Severino, 2015. "A spatial analysis model to assess the feasibility of short rotation forestry fertigated with urban wastewater: Basilicata region case study," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 185-196.
    3. Grilli, Gianluca & Fratini, Roberto & Marone, Enrico & Sacchelli, Sandro, 2020. "A spatial-based tool for the analysis of payments for forest ecosystem services related to hydrogeological protection," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).

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