IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v92y2026ics1544612326000942.html

Climate policy uncertainty and green premium: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Peng, Daoju
  • Du, Siyu
  • Li, Jing
  • Shen, Jianfu

Abstract

We examine the pricing effect of climate policy uncertainty on green bonds in a transitional economy with rapidly developing green financing market. We find a significant relationship between green premium and climate policy uncertainty in China. When climate policy uncertainty is high, the yield difference between green bonds and their conventional “twin” bonds (green premium) increases, suggesting that investors in China demand higher compensation during these periods rather than perceiving green bonds as a valid hedge against policy uncertainty. This effect is more pronounced for green bonds issued in climate sensitive regions (northern regions), with higher green credibility (certified by third party), and higher exposure to climate policy (issued in large sizes), suggesting a weaker signaling of certification and high risk of green projects during periods with heightened climate policy uncertainty. Our results are robust across alternative model specifications, macroeconomic factors and various fixed effects. Two channels, financial market development and green commitment, are identified through which local conditions buffer the impact of CPU on green bond premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng, Daoju & Du, Siyu & Li, Jing & Shen, Jianfu, 2026. "Climate policy uncertainty and green premium: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:92:y:2026:i:c:s1544612326000942
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109563
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612326000942
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2026.109563?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lian, Yonghui & Ye, Tao & Zhang, Yiyang & Zhang, Lin, 2023. "How does corporate ESG performance affect bond credit spreads: Empirical evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 352-371.
    2. Vo, Hong & Nguyen, Tien & Phan, Hieu V., 2024. "Building a sustainable future: The role of corporate social responsibility in climate policy uncertainty management," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Pham, Linh & Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2022. "How do stock, oil, and economic policy uncertainty influence the green bond market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    4. Malcolm Baker & Daniel Bergstresser & George Serafeim & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2018. "Financing the Response to Climate Change: The Pricing and Ownership of U.S. Green Bonds," NBER Working Papers 25194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Zerbib, Olivier David, 2019. "The effect of pro-environmental preferences on bond prices: Evidence from green bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 39-60.
    6. Dong, Xiyong & Xiong, Youlin & Nie, Siyue & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2023. "Can bonds hedge stock market risks? Green bonds vs conventional bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    8. David Gilchrist & Jing Yu & Rui Zhong, 2021. "The Limits of Green Finance: A Survey of Literature in the Context of Green Bonds and Green Loans," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-12, January.
    9. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Zhang, Yupu, 2020. "Do shareholders benefit from green bonds?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Flammer, Caroline, 2021. "Corporate green bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 499-516.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Inzamam Ul Haq & Supat Chupradit & Chunhui Huo, 2021. "Do Green Bonds Act as a Hedge or a Safe Haven against Economic Policy Uncertainty? Evidence from the USA and China," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-18, August.
    13. Sun, Guanglin & Fang, Jiming & Li, Ting & Ai, Yongfang, 2024. "Effects of climate policy uncertainty on green innovation in Chinese enterprises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. Husain, Shaiara & Sohag, Kazi & Wu, Yanrui, 2022. "The response of green energy and technology investment to climate policy uncertainty: An application of twin transitions strategy," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Xiaoyang Xu & Yufan Xie & Emma Serwaa Obobisa & Huaping Sun, 2023. "Has the establishment of green finance reform and innovation pilot zones improved air quality? Evidence from China," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.
    16. Yu, Qing & Hui, Eddie Chi-Man & Shen, Jianfu, 2024. "The real impacts of third-party certification on green bond issuances: Evidence from the Chinese green bond market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Ma, Dandan & Zhang, Dayong & Guo, Kun & Ji, Qiang, 2024. "Coupling between global climate policy uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    18. Broadstock, David C. & Cheng, Louis T.W., 2019. "Time-varying relation between black and green bond price benchmarks: Macroeconomic determinants for the first decade," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 17-22.
    19. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, February.
    20. Larcker, David F. & Watts, Edward M., 2020. "Where's the greenium?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2).
    21. Pan, An & Zhang, Wenna & Shi, Xunpeng & Dai, Ling, 2022. "Climate policy and low-carbon innovation: Evidence from low-carbon city pilots in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    22. Wang, You & Gong, Xu, 2020. "Does financial development have a non-linear impact on energy consumption? Evidence from 30 provinces in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    23. Xiaohang Ren & Weichen Li & Kun Duan & Xinru Zhang, 2024. "Does climate policy uncertainty really affect corporate financialization?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 4705-4723, February.
    24. Kanamura, Takashi, 2020. "Are green bonds environmentally friendly and good performing assets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    25. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2021. "Sustainable investing in equilibrium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 550-571.
    26. Xu, Chong & Tao, Miaomiao & Qi, Lingli & Roubaud, David, 2025. "Can green CEOs trigger the green premium effect?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    27. Held, Hermann & Kriegler, Elmar & Lessmann, Kai & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2009. "Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages 50-61.
    28. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
    29. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Jingyao & He, Feng & Lucey, Brian, 2023. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on traditional energy and green markets: Evidence from time-varying granger tests," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    30. Torsten Ehlers & Frank Packer, 2017. "Green bond finance and certification," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    31. M. Chiesa & S. Barua, 2019. "The surge of impact borrowing: the magnitude and determinants of green bond supply and its heterogeneity across markets," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 138-161, April.
    32. Ji, Qiang & Ma, Dandan & Zhai, Pengxiang & Fan, Ying & Zhang, Dayong, 2024. "Global climate policy uncertainty and financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    33. Shouzhen Zeng & Junfang Hu & Fengjuan Gu & Llopis- Albert Carlos, 2023. "Financial information, green certification, government subsidies and green bond credit spreads–evidence from China," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 321-341, March.
    34. Arno Riedl & Paul Smeets, 2017. "Why Do Investors Hold Socially Responsible Mutual Funds?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(6), pages 2505-2550, December.
    35. Jiasheng Yu & Maojun Zhang & Ruoyu Liu & Guodong Wang, 2023. "Dynamic Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Green Bond Volatility: An Empirical Investigation Based on TVP-VAR Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-17, January.
    36. Ren, Xiaohang & Zhang, Xiao & Yan, Cheng & Gozgor, Giray, 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and firm-level total factor productivity: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    37. Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom & Yang, Ming, 2007. "Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5766-5773, November.
    38. Li, Jinning & Kong, Tao & Gu, Liangliang, 2024. "The impact of climate policy uncertainty on green innovation in Chinese agricultural enterprises," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cotugno, Matteo & Fiorillo, Paolo & Monferrà, Stefano & Severini, Sabrina, 2025. "ESG incidents and corporate green bond market reaction," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Ghardallou, Wafa & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Is greenness an optimal hedge for sectoral stock indices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    3. Arif, Muhammad & Hasan, Mudassar & Alawi, Suha M. & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2021. "COVID-19 and time-frequency connectedness between green and conventional financial markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Pham, Linh & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2022. "Extreme directional spillovers between investor attention and green bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 186-210.
    5. Román Ferrer & Rafael Benítez & Vicente J. Bolós, 2021. "Interdependence between Green Financial Instruments and Major Conventional Assets: A Wavelet-Based Network Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-20, April.
    6. Gyamerah, Samuel Asante & Agbi-Kaiser, Henry Ofoe & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2024. "Do climate policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk transmit opportunity or threat to the green market? Evidence from non-linear ARDL," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    7. Pietsch, Allegra & Salakhova, Dilyara, 2025. "Pricing of green bonds: Greenium dynamics and the role of retail investors," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Doğan, Buhari & Trabelsi, Nader & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Ghosh, Sudeshna, 2023. "Dynamic dependence and causality between crude oil, green bonds, commodities, geopolitical risks, and policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 36-62.
    9. Khan, Muhammad Arif & Vismara, Silvio, 2025. "Green bond issuance and corporate environmental and financial performance: A meta-analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Wei Su, Chi & Yue Song, Xin & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2024. "Optimistic or pessimistic: How do investors impact the green bond market?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Wu, Jiawen & Li, Jing-Ping & Su, Chi-Wei, 2024. "Can green bond hedges climate policy uncertainty in the United States: New insights from novel time-varying causality and quantile-on-quantile methods?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1158-1176.
    12. Samuel Mutarindwa & Dorothea Schäfer & Andreas Stephan, 2024. "Certification against greenwashing in nascent bond markets: lessons from African ESG bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(1), pages 149-173, March.
    13. Li, Jingxin & Lan, Qiujun & Wang, Xiangjin & Ge, Linnan, 2025. "Oil price shocks and green bond spreads: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 178-190.
    14. Martijn Boermans, 2023. "Preferred habitat investors in the green bond market," Working Papers 773, DNB.
    15. Kocaarslan, Baris, 2023. "Funding liquidity risk and the volatility of U.S. municipal green bonds during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    16. Keum, Byounguk, 2025. "Do Stricter Green Standards Bring Higher Greenium? Evidence from Korea," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PE).
    17. Allegra Pietsch & Dilyara Salakhova, 2025. "Pricing of Green Bonds: Greenium Dynamics and the Role of Retail Investors," Working papers 1010, Banque de France.
    18. Lee H. Seltzer & Laura Starks & Qifei Zhu, 2022. "Climate Regulatory Risk and Corporate Bonds," NBER Working Papers 29994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Liu, Min, 2022. "The driving forces of green bond market volatility and the response of the market to the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 288-309.
    20. Mingyu Hu & Xinyin Zhang & Yeyu Zhang, 2025. "The spillover effect of green bond issuance on corporate financial performances: evidence from China," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1567-1593, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:92:y:2026:i:c:s1544612326000942. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.