IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v87y2023ics1057521923000947.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact and the contagion effect of natural disasters on sovereign credit risk. An empirical investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Di Tommaso, Caterina
  • Foglia, Matteo
  • Pacelli, Vincenzo

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between natural disasters and the reaction of sovereign CDS spread in Europe. By applying an event study methodology during the period January 2007–December 2021 on an original database in which we identify 92 natural disasters in 17 European countries, we assess the reaction of the sovereign CDS market to a natural disaster. We find a heterogeneous response of the European sovereign risk to a natural disaster, as the response of the sovereign CDS market differs from region to region. The advent of a natural disaster can increase inequality between the regions due to the higher cost of credit for sovereigns and the reduced scope for manoeuvring public finances. Also, the results of the contagion effect confirm the hypothesis of a cross-border propagation effect, as natural disaster, in general, is not local event but spreads to other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Tommaso, Caterina & Foglia, Matteo & Pacelli, Vincenzo, 2023. "The impact and the contagion effect of natural disasters on sovereign credit risk. An empirical investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:87:y:2023:i:c:s1057521923000947
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102578
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521923000947
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102578?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    2. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Emanuele Baldacci & Tigran Poghosyan, 2013. "Spatial spillovers in emerging market spreads," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 735-756, October.
    3. Mallucci, Enrico, 2022. "Natural disasters, climate change, and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Klomp, Jeroen, 2014. "Financial fragility and natural disasters: An empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 180-192.
    5. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rigobon, Roberto, 2018. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-181.
    6. Brei, Michael & Mohan, Preeya & Strobl, Eric, 2019. "The impact of natural disasters on the banking sector: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Caribbean," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 232-239.
    7. Bourdeau-Brien, Michael & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2017. "The impact of natural disasters on the stock returns and volatilities of local firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 259-270.
    8. Noy, Ilan & Nualsri, Aekkanush, 2011. "Fiscal storms: public spending and revenues in the aftermath of natural disasters," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 113-128, February.
    9. Jeroen Klomp, 2015. "Sovereign Risk and Natural Disasters in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 1326-1341, November.
    10. Albuquerque, Pedro H. & Rajhi, Wassim, 2019. "Banking stability, natural disasters, and state fragility: Panel VAR evidence from developing countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 430-443.
    11. Le, Chau & Dickinson, David & Le, Anh, 2022. "Sovereign risk spillovers: A network approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    12. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 126-140.
    13. Martin Gassebner & Alexander Keck & Robert Teh, 2010. "Shaken, Not Stirred: The Impact of Disasters on International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 351-368, May.
    14. Stavros A. Zenios, 2022. "The risks from climate change to sovereign debt," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Ballester, Laura & Casu, Barbara & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2016. "Bank fragility and contagion: Evidence from the bank CDS market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 394-416.
    16. World Bank, 2021. "Investment in Disaster Risk Management in Europe Makes Economic Sense," World Bank Publications - Reports 36293, The World Bank Group.
    17. World Bank, 2021. "Investment in Disaster Risk Management in Europe Makes Economic Sense," World Bank Publications - Reports 35686, The World Bank Group.
    18. repec:elg:eechap:14395_1 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Susana Ferreira & Berna Karali, 2015. "Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, July.
    20. Vikrant Panwar & Subir Sen, 2019. "Economic Impact of Natural Disasters: An Empirical Re-examination," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 109-139, February.
    21. Calice, Giovanni & Mio, RongHui & Štěrba, Filip & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: A regime-dependent analysis for European credit default swaps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-189.
    22. Lee, Hsien-Yi & Wu, Hsing-Chi & Wang, Yung-Jang, 2007. "Contagion effect in financial markets after the South-East Asia Tsunami," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 281-296, June.
    23. Andrew Worthington & Abbas Valadkhani, 2004. "Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: an empirical application using intervention analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2177-2186.
    24. Valizadeh, Pourya & Karali, Berna & Ferreira, Susana, 2017. "Ripple effects of the 2011 Japan earthquake on international stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 556-576.
    25. Pagnottoni, Paolo & Spelta, Alessandro & Flori, Andrea & Pammolli, Fabio, 2022. "Climate change and financial stability: Natural disaster impacts on global stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 599(C).
    26. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
    27. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    28. Theodoros Bratis & Nikiforos T. Laopodis & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2018. "Contagion and interdependence in Eurozone bank and sovereign credit markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 655-674, October.
    29. Giuzio, Margherita & Krušec, Dejan & Levels, Anouk & Melo, Ana Sofia & Mikkonen, Katri & Radulova, Petya, 2019. "Climate change and financial stability," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    30. Lin Wang & Ali M Kutan, 2013. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Stock Markets: Evidence from Japan and the US," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(4), pages 672-686, December.
    31. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    32. Lanfear, Matthew G. & Lioui, Abraham & Siebert, Mark G., 2019. "Market anomalies and disaster risk: Evidence from extreme weather events," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    33. Rajhi, Wassim & Albuquerque, Pedro H., 2017. "Banking stability, natural disasters, and political conflicts: Time series evidence on causality in developing countries," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-52, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    34. Noth, Felix & Schüwer, Ulrich, 2018. "Natural disasters and bank stability: Evidence from the U.S. financial system," SAFE Working Paper Series 167, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2018.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Raluca Maran, 2023. "Do Sovereign Catastrophe Bonds Improve Fiscal Resilience? An Application of Synthetic Control Method to Mexico," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 431-455, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pagnottoni, Paolo & Spelta, Alessandro & Flori, Andrea & Pammolli, Fabio, 2022. "Climate change and financial stability: Natural disaster impacts on global stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 599(C).
    2. Valizadeh, Pourya & Karali, Berna & Ferreira, Susana, 2017. "Ripple effects of the 2011 Japan earthquake on international stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 556-576.
    3. Malik, Ihtisham A. & Chowdhury, Hasibul & Alam, Md Samsul, 2023. "Equity market response to natural disasters: Does firm's corporate social responsibility make difference?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Wan-Li Zhang & Chun-Ping Chang & Yang Xuan, 2022. "The impacts of climate change on bank performance: What’s the mediating role of natural disasters?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1913-1952, August.
    5. Shala, Iliriana & Schumacher, Benno, 2022. "The impact of natural disasters on banks' impairment flow: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 36/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Ihtisham A. Malik & Robert Faff, 2022. "Industry market reaction to natural disasters: do firm characteristics and disaster magnitude matter?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2963-2994, April.
    7. Zhimei Lei & Kuo-Jui Wu & Li Cui & Ming K Lim, 2018. "A Hybrid Approach to Explore the Risk Dependency Structure among Agribusiness Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, February.
    8. Gregory, Richard P., 2021. "Climate disasters, carbon dioxide, and financial fundamentals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 45-58.
    9. Jerch, Rhiannon & Kahn, Matthew E. & Lin, Gary C., 2023. "Local public finance dynamics and hurricane shocks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Ryota Nakatani, 2021. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.
    11. Donadelli, M. & Jüppner, M. & Paradiso, A. & Ghisletti, M., 2020. "Tornado activity, house prices, and stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Birindelli, Giuliana & Miazza, Aline & Paimanova, Viktoriia & Palea, Vera, 2023. "Just “blah blah blah”? Stock market expectations and reactions to COP26," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    13. Klomp, Jeroen, 2017. "Flooded with debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 93-103.
    14. Calice,Pietro & Miguel Liriano,Faruk, 2021. "Climate-Related and Environmental Risks for the Banking Sector in Latin America and the Caribbean : A Preliminary Assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9694, The World Bank.
    15. Zhang, Jing Hua & Tam, Kwo Ping & Zhou, Nan, 2016. "Do smoking bans always hurt the gaming industry? Differentiated impacts on the market value of casino firms in Macao (China)," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-21, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Kamphol Panyagometh, 2020. "The Effects of Pandemic Event on the Stock Exchange of Thailand," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-22, October.
    17. Muhammad Tariq Iqbal Khan & Sofia Anwar & Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie & Muhammad Rizwan Yaseen & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Qamar Ali, 2023. "Natural disasters, resilience-building, and risk: achieving sustainable cities and human settlements," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(1), pages 611-640, August.
    18. Bourdeau-Brien, Michael & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2017. "The impact of natural disasters on the stock returns and volatilities of local firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 259-270.
    19. Guangxi Cao & Wei Xu & Yu Guo, 2015. "Effects of climatic events on the Chinese stock market: applying event analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(3), pages 1979-1992, July.
    20. Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Tran, Vuong Thao & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach, 2023. "Does green activity impact stock price crash risk? The role of climate risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:87:y:2023:i:c:s1057521923000947. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.