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Assessment of decarbonization pathway for Chinese road transport sector based on transportation-energy integration systems framework

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  • Wan, Tianyi
  • Fu, Hao
  • Li, Xiaoshan
  • Wu, Fan
  • Luo, Cong
  • Zhang, Liqi

Abstract

The road transport sector becomes the most difficult sector to fully decarbonize due to its heavy reliance on oil. It is not clear how to affordably achieve low-carbon transition in China yet. In order to identify the most optimal pathway for emission reduction, a transportation-energy integration systems framework was established to analyze CO2 emission reduction potential and cost-benefit. The results of the case study demonstrate that the main source of carbon emissions are heavy freight truck and light passenger vehicles which accounting for 71.7 % of the total. Implementation of vehicle carbon capture technology and electrification transition can reduce 39.5 % CO2 emissions by 2050. However, rapid electrification of transport has led to a sectoral shift rather than an effective reduction in CO2 emissions. The Avoid-Shift-Improve strategy which exhibits good synergy in technology and policy represents a comprehensive approach to overcome this problem. To achieve the carbon neutrality in road transport of China, the most cost-benefit order of implementation from the beginning to the end are demand-side management, improving the efficiency of internal combustion engines, deployment of carbon capture technology and electrification transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Wan, Tianyi & Fu, Hao & Li, Xiaoshan & Wu, Fan & Luo, Cong & Zhang, Liqi, 2025. "Assessment of decarbonization pathway for Chinese road transport sector based on transportation-energy integration systems framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:317:y:2025:i:c:s036054422500369x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134727
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