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Meta-data analysis of biofuels in emerging markets of Africa and Asia: Greenhouse gas savings and economic feasibility

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  • Leal Silva, Jean Felipe
  • Nogueira, Luiz Augusto Horta
  • Cantarella, Heitor
  • Rossetto, Raffaella
  • Maciel Filho, Rubens
  • Souza, Glaucia Mendes

Abstract

The transportation sector is a key contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Despite the potential of electrification in decarbonizing this sector, fleet renewal will produce effects only in the long term and this solution is still costly, especially for developing countries. In contrast, biofuels represent a mature technology for managing GHG emissions in transportation, and its production is especially interesting in regions where it can bring agricultural development. This work presents harmonized life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis of the expansion or implementation of biofuel blending mandates in China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa, and Thailand, considering 23 biofuel pathways (biodiesel and ethanol) with feedstock choice and productivity varying according to country conditions. The global warming potential of biofuels was significantly lower than that of fossil fuels. The lowest reductions were observed in biofuels whose agricultural or industrial phases are heavily dependent on fossil resources (coal-based ammonia for nitrogen fertilizer or coal/gas as an energy source in industry). Among the 23 options, 18 were selected for a market analysis that showed a decrease in the energy cost of fuel for all countries except China and Malaysia, where feedstock cost and fossil fuel subsidies are issues. Biofuels can reduce GHG emissions in the transportation sector by up to 17 % using a 25 % blending mandate. Based on this harmonized approach, it was possible to compare the potential of biofuels in emerging markets and to provide recommendations for research and policy development.

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  • Leal Silva, Jean Felipe & Nogueira, Luiz Augusto Horta & Cantarella, Heitor & Rossetto, Raffaella & Maciel Filho, Rubens & Souza, Glaucia Mendes, 2025. "Meta-data analysis of biofuels in emerging markets of Africa and Asia: Greenhouse gas savings and economic feasibility," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:213:y:2025:i:c:s1364032125001388
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2025.115465
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