Policy Simulation of the Coordinated Development of Environmental Governance and Urbanization in the Beijing–Tianjin-Hebei Region: A Study Using a Multi-Regional CGE Model

Ecological environmental governance is not only a crucial aspect of the urbanization process, but also a key factor for achieving coordinated development between regional economies and the environment. This study utilizes a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the impact of varying degrees of environmental governance on urbanization in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. The results indicate that ecological environmental governance may exert certain negative effects on urbanization processes, such as GDP, household income, and industrial output; however, it also helps to reduce environmental pollution to some extent. From the different scenarios examined, we observed that both fully local environmental governance and proportional environmental governance result in impacts on urbanization development in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. However, significant differences are evident among the three regions. The effects of ecological environmental governance on urbanization are the least pronounced in Beijing, followed by Tianjin, while Hebei experiences far greater disruptions, with economic declines exceeding 7%, significantly surpassing its capacity to cope. Based on these findings, this paper proposes several policy recommendations, including the necessity of differentiated intensities for ecological environmental governance, a gradual expansion of the governance scope, and the implementation of a diverse combination of policies for air pollution control and emissions reduction.