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Bio-energy with carbon storage (BECS): A sequential decision approach to the threat of abrupt climate change

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  • Read, Peter
  • Lermit, Jonathan

Abstract

Abrupt climate change (ACC) is an issue that ‘haunts the climate change problem’ but has so far been neglected by policy makers. This may have been because of an apparent lack of practicable measures for effective response, apart from risky geoengineering. If achieved on a sufficiently large scale, a portfolio of Bio-Energy with Carbon Storage (BECS) technologies, yielding a negative-emissions energy system, may be seen not only as benign geoengineering, free of the risks associated with other geoengineering, but also as one of the keys to being prepared for ACC. The nature of sequential future decisions is discussed; these will need to be taken in response to the evolution of future events, which is as yet unknown. The impact of such decisions on land-use change is related to a specific bio-energy conversion technology. The effects of a precautionary strategy, possibly leading to eventual land-use change on a large scale, is modeled using FLAMES (see Appendix A). Modeling shows that, using BECS, and under strong assumptions appropriate to imminent ACC, preindustrial CO2 levels can be restored by mid-century. Addressed to ACC rather than gradual climate change, a robust strategy related to Article 3.3 of the Convention may provide the basis for rapprochement between Kyoto Parties and other Annex 1 Parties.

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  • Read, Peter & Lermit, Jonathan, 2005. "Bio-energy with carbon storage (BECS): A sequential decision approach to the threat of abrupt climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(14), pages 2654-2671.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:30:y:2005:i:14:p:2654-2671
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2004.07.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Read, 2002. "Precautionary climate policy and the somewhat flawed protocol: linking sinks to biofuel and the CDM to the convention," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 89-95, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bobo Zheng & Jiuping Xu, 2014. "Carbon Capture and Storage Development Trends from a Techno-Paradigm Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-30, August.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    3. Elofsson, Katarina & Gren, Ing-Marie, 2013. "Should forests be used as uncertain carbon sinks or uncertain fossil fuel substitutes in the EU Roadmap to 2050?," Working Paper Series 2013:8, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department Economics.
    4. Mathews, John A., 2008. "Carbon-negative biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 940-945, March.
    5. Audrey Laude & Christian Jonen, 2011. "Biomass and CCS: The influence of the learning effect," Working Papers halshs-00829779, HAL.
    6. Christian JONEN & Audrey LAUDE, 2011. "Biomasse and CCS: The Influence of the Learning Effect," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 273, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    7. Stefan Grönkvist & Kenneth Möllersten & Kim Pingoud, 2006. "Equal Opportunity for Biomass in Greenhouse Gas Accounting of CO 2 Capture and Storage: A Step Towards More Cost-Effective Climate Change Mitigation Regimes," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 11(5), pages 1083-1096, September.
    8. Mendiara, T. & García-Labiano, F. & Abad, A. & Gayán, P. & de Diego, L.F. & Izquierdo, M.T. & Adánez, J., 2018. "Negative CO2 emissions through the use of biofuels in chemical looping technology: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 657-684.
    9. Laude, Audrey & Jonen, Christian, 2013. "Biomass and CCS: The influence of technical change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 916-924.
    10. Korobeinikov, A. & Read, P. & Parshotam, A. & Lermit, J., 2010. "Modelling regional markets for co-produced timber and biofuel," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 553-561, January.
    11. Sithole, H. & Cockerill, T.T. & Hughes, K.J. & Ingham, D.B. & Ma, L. & Porter, R.T.J. & Pourkashanian, M., 2016. "Developing an optimal electricity generation mix for the UK 2050 future," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 363-373.
    12. Sanchez, Daniel L. & Callaway, Duncan S., 2016. "Optimal scale of carbon-negative energy facilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 437-444.
    13. Wil Burns & Simon Nicholson, 2017. "Bioenergy and carbon capture with storage (BECCS): the prospects and challenges of an emerging climate policy response," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 7(4), pages 527-534, December.

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