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Bio-energy with carbon storage (BECS): A sequential decision approach to the threat of abrupt climate change

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  • Read, Peter
  • Lermit, Jonathan

Abstract

Abrupt climate change (ACC) is an issue that ‘haunts the climate change problem’ but has so far been neglected by policy makers. This may have been because of an apparent lack of practicable measures for effective response, apart from risky geoengineering. If achieved on a sufficiently large scale, a portfolio of Bio-Energy with Carbon Storage (BECS) technologies, yielding a negative-emissions energy system, may be seen not only as benign geoengineering, free of the risks associated with other geoengineering, but also as one of the keys to being prepared for ACC. The nature of sequential future decisions is discussed; these will need to be taken in response to the evolution of future events, which is as yet unknown. The impact of such decisions on land-use change is related to a specific bio-energy conversion technology. The effects of a precautionary strategy, possibly leading to eventual land-use change on a large scale, is modeled using FLAMES (see Appendix A). Modeling shows that, using BECS, and under strong assumptions appropriate to imminent ACC, preindustrial CO2 levels can be restored by mid-century. Addressed to ACC rather than gradual climate change, a robust strategy related to Article 3.3 of the Convention may provide the basis for rapprochement between Kyoto Parties and other Annex 1 Parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Read, Peter & Lermit, Jonathan, 2005. "Bio-energy with carbon storage (BECS): A sequential decision approach to the threat of abrupt climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(14), pages 2654-2671.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:30:y:2005:i:14:p:2654-2671
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2004.07.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan Manne & Richard Richels, 1992. "Buying Greenhouse Insurance: The Economic Costs of CO2 Emission Limits," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026213280x.
    2. Schelling, Thomas C, 1992. "Some Economics of Global Warming," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 1-14, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bobo Zheng & Jiuping Xu, 2014. "Carbon Capture and Storage Development Trends from a Techno-Paradigm Perspective," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(8), pages 1-30, August.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    3. Mathews, John A., 2008. "Carbon-negative biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 940-945, March.
    4. Audrey Laude & Christian Jonen, 2011. "Biomass and CCS: The influence of the learning effect," Working Papers halshs-00829779, HAL.
    5. Christian JONEN & Audrey LAUDE, 2011. "Biomasse and CCS: The Influence of the Learning Effect," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 273, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    6. Laude, Audrey & Jonen, Christian, 2013. "Biomass and CCS: The influence of technical change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 916-924.
    7. Korobeinikov, A. & Read, P. & Parshotam, A. & Lermit, J., 2010. "Modelling regional markets for co-produced timber and biofuel," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 553-561, January.
    8. Sanchez, Daniel L. & Callaway, Duncan S., 2016. "Optimal scale of carbon-negative energy facilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 437-444.
    9. repec:spr:jenvss:v:7:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s13412-017-0445-6 is not listed on IDEAS

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