Valuation anomalies for interconnector transmission rights
Whilst the acquisition of physical transmission interconnector rights between two or more electricity markets can be structured as spread options on the spot prices of electricity between connected markets, empirical evidence suggests that actual prices may be quite different. This raises issues for the valuation of transmission rights, particularly in the European context of market harmonisation, and the use of transmission rights with increasing levels of wind penetration. We examine the price differentials between the Irish and British electricity markets, where explicit transmission capacity auctions have been persistently undersubscribed and transmission rights acquired but not fully utilised. We find significant empirical indications that auction prices for transmission rights are undervalued against both arbitrage and spread option valuations. We also find significant power flows against the efficient price spread direction. A survey of a group of experts with an interest in trading power between Ireland and Britain inform a number of possible explanations for the apparent inefficiencies. These include ex-post pricing in the Irish market, intermittent wind and strategic behaviour by dominant firms.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kristiansen, Tarjei, 2007. "An assessment of the Danish-German cross-border auctions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3369-3382, June.
- Severin Borenstein & James. Bushnell & Steven Stoft, 2000.
"The Competitive Effects of Transmission Capacity in A Deregulated Electricity Industry,"
RAND Journal of Economics,
The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(2), pages 294-325, Summer.
- Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Steven Stoft, 1997. "The Competitive Effects of Transmission Capacity in a Deregulated Electricity Industry," NBER Working Papers 6293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Berenstein, Severin & Bushnell, James & Stoft, Steven, 2000. "The Competitive Effects of Transmission Capacity in a Deregulated Electricity Industry," Staff General Research Papers Archive 13145, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Gorecki, Paul K., 2011. "The Internal EU Electricity Market: Implications for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS23.
- Jacques Pelkmans & Lionel Kapff, 2010. "Interconnector Investment for a Well-functioning Internal Market. What EU regime of regulatory incentives?," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 18, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
- Benjamin F. Hobbs & Fieke A.M. Rijkers & Maroeska G. Boots, 2005. "The More Cooperation, The More Competition? A Cournot Analysis of the Benefits of Electric Market Coupling," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 69-98.
- Hobbs, B.F. & Rijkers, F.A.M., 2005. "The More Cooperation, the More Competition? A Cournot Analysis of the Benefits of Electric Market Coupling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0509, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Dempster, M.A.H. & Medova, Elena & Tang, Ke, 2008. "Long term spread option valuation and hedging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2530-2540, December.
- Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2009. "Welfare and competition effects of electricity interconnection between Ireland and Great Britain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4679-4688, November.
- Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
- González-Pedraz, Carlos & Cartea, Álvaro, 2010. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb103206, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
- Derek Bunn & Georg Zachmann, 2010. "Inefficient arbitrage in inter-regional electricity transmission," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 243-265, June.
- Michiel de Nooij, 2010. "Social Cost Benefit Analysis of Interconnector Investment: A Critical Appraisal," Bremen Energy Working Papers 0002, Bremen Energy Research.
- Devitt, Conor & Diffney, Seán & FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Tuohy, Aidan, 2011. "Goldilocks and the Three Electricity Prices: Are Irish Prices "Just Right"?," Papers WP372, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Denny, E. & Tuohy, A. & Meibom, P. & Keane, A. & Flynn, D. & Mullane, A. & O'Malley, M., 2010. "The impact of increased interconnection on electricity systems with large penetrations of wind generation: A case study of Ireland and Great Britain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6946-6954, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)