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Valuation anomalies for interconnector transmission rights

  • McInerney, Celine
  • Bunn, Derek
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    Whilst the acquisition of physical transmission interconnector rights between two or more electricity markets can be structured as spread options on the spot prices of electricity between connected markets, empirical evidence suggests that actual prices may be quite different. This raises issues for the valuation of transmission rights, particularly in the European context of market harmonisation, and the use of transmission rights with increasing levels of wind penetration. We examine the price differentials between the Irish and British electricity markets, where explicit transmission capacity auctions have been persistently undersubscribed and transmission rights acquired but not fully utilised. We find significant empirical indications that auction prices for transmission rights are undervalued against both arbitrage and spread option valuations. We also find significant power flows against the efficient price spread direction. A survey of a group of experts with an interest in trading power between Ireland and Britain inform a number of possible explanations for the apparent inefficiencies. These include ex-post pricing in the Irish market, intermittent wind and strategic behaviour by dominant firms.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 55 (2013)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 565-578

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:55:y:2013:i:c:p:565-578
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    1. Devitt, Conor & Diffney, Seán & FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Tuohy, Aidan, 2011. "Goldilocks and the Three Electricity Prices: Are Irish Prices "Just Right"?," Papers WP372, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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    4. Álvaro Cartea & Carlos González-Pedraz, 2010. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Business Economics Working Papers wb103206, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    5. Laura Malaguzzi Valeri, 2008. "Welfare and Competition Effects of Electricity Interconnection between Great Britain and Ireland," Papers WP232, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Denny, E. & Tuohy, A. & Meibom, P. & Keane, A. & Flynn, D. & Mullane, A. & O'Malley, M., 2010. "The impact of increased interconnection on electricity systems with large penetrations of wind generation: A case study of Ireland and Great Britain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6946-6954, November.
    7. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Steven Stoft, 1997. "The Competitive Effects of Transmission Capacity in a Deregulated Electricity Industry," NBER Working Papers 6293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hobbs, B.F. & Rijkers, F.A.M., 2005. "The More Cooperation, the More Competition? A Cournot Analysis of the Benefits of Electric Market Coupling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0509, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Kristiansen, Tarjei, 2007. "An assessment of the Danish-German cross-border auctions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3369-3382, June.
    10. Gorecki, Paul K., 2011. "The Internal EU Electricity Market: Implications for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS23.
    11. Dempster, M.A.H. & Medova, Elena & Tang, Ke, 2008. "Long term spread option valuation and hedging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2530-2540, December.
    12. Michiel de Nooij, 2010. "Social cost benefit analysis of interconnector investment: A critical appraisal," Bremen Energy Working Papers 0002, Bremer Energie Institut.
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