IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v79y2019icp3-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Speculative trading of electricity contracts in interconnected locations

Author

Listed:
  • Cartea, Álvaro
  • Jaimungal, Sebastian
  • Qin, Zhen

Abstract

We derive an investor's optimal trading strategy of electricity contracts traded in two locations joined by an interconnector. The investor employs a price model which includes the impact of her own trades. The investor's trades have a permanent impact on prices because her trading activity affects the demand of contracts in both locations. Additionally, the investor receives prices which are worse than the quoted prices as a result of the elasticity of liquidity provision of contracts. Furthermore, the investor is ambiguity averse, so she acknowledges that her model of prices may be misspecified and considers other models when devising her trading strategy. We show that as the investor's degree of ambiguity aversion increases, her trading activity decreases in both locations, and thus her inventory exposure also decreases. Finally, we show that there is a range of ambiguity aversion parameters where the Sharpe ratio of the trading strategy increases when ambiguity aversion increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Cartea, Álvaro & Jaimungal, Sebastian & Qin, Zhen, 2019. "Speculative trading of electricity contracts in interconnected locations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 3-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:79:y:2019:i:c:p:3-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.11.019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988318304596
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.11.019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2013. "Ambiguity in asset pricing and portfolio choice: a review of the literature," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 183-217, February.
    2. Raman Uppal & Tan Wang, 2003. "Model Misspecification and Underdiversification," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2465-2486, December.
    3. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2008. "Stochastic Modeling of Electricity and Related Markets," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6811, January.
    4. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
    5. Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
    6. Ben Hambly & Sam Howison & Tino Kluge, 2009. "Modelling spikes and pricing swing options in electricity markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(8), pages 937-949.
    7. Samuel Hikspoors & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2007. "Energy Spot Price Models And Spread Options Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(07), pages 1111-1135.
    8. McInerney, Celine & Bunn, Derek, 2013. "Valuation anomalies for interconnector transmission rights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 565-578.
    9. Fred Espen Benth & Lars Ekeland & Ragnar Hauge & BjøRn Fredrik Nielsen, 2003. "A note on arbitrage-free pricing of forward contracts in energy markets," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 325-336.
    10. Bannör, Karl & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Nazarova, Anna & Scherer, Matthias, 2016. "Parametric model risk and power plant valuation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 423-434.
    11. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 5, pages 145-154, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Benth Fred E & Saltyte-Benth Jurate, 2006. "Analytical Approximation for the Price Dynamics of Spark Spread Options," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, September.
    13. Fred Espen Benth & Jan Kallsen & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2007. "A Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process for Electricity Spot Price Modeling and Derivatives Pricing," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 153-169.
    14. Álvaro Cartea & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2017. "Irreversible Investments And Ambiguity Aversion," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(07), pages 1-26, November.
    15. Newbery, David & Strbac, Goran & Viehoff, Ivan, 2016. "The benefits of integrating European electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 253-263.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Torben Koch & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2019. "Optimal Installation of Solar Panels with Price Impact: a Solvable Singular Stochastic Control Problem," Papers 1911.04223, arXiv.org.
    2. Erwan Pierre & Lorenz Schneider, 2024. "Intermittently coupled electricity markets," Post-Print hal-04411166, HAL.
    3. Serafin, Tomasz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2022. "Trading on short-term path forecasts of intraday electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Almendra Awerkin & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2021. "Optimal installation of renewable electricity sources: the case of Italy," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1179-1209, December.
    5. Zhao, Wenhui & Zhang, Jiuyang & Li, Ruan & Zha, Ruiming, 2021. "A transaction case analysis of the development of generation rights trading and existing shortages in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Farshid Mehrdoust & Idin Noorani, 2023. "Valuation of Spark-Spread Option Written on Electricity and Gas Forward Contracts Under Two-Factor Models with Non-Gaussian Lévy Processes," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 807-853, February.
    3. Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
    4. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2008. "Stochastic Modeling of Electricity and Related Markets," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6811, January.
    5. Jun Maekawa & Koji Shimada, 2019. "A Speculative Trading Model for the Electricity Market: Based on Japan Electric Power Exchange," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-15, July.
    6. Moreno, Manuel & Novales, Alfonso & Platania, Federico, 2019. "Long-term swings and seasonality in energy markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(3), pages 1011-1023.
    7. Hain, Martin & Kargus, Tobias & Schermeyer, Hans & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Fichtner, Wolf, 2022. "An electricity price modeling framework for renewable-dominant markets," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 66, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    8. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.
    9. Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2013. "Ambiguity in asset pricing and portfolio choice: a review of the literature," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 183-217, February.
    10. Hain, Martin & Schermeyer, Hans & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Fichtner, Wolf, 2017. "An Electricity Price Modeling Framework for Renewable-Dominant Markets," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 23, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    11. Milo Bianchi & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2019. "Ambiguity Preferences and Portfolio Choices: Evidence from the Field," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 1486-1501, April.
    12. Benth, Fred Espen & Koekebakker, Steen, 2008. "Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1116-1157, May.
    13. Latini, Luca & Piccirilli, Marco & Vargiolu, Tiziano, 2019. "Mean-reverting no-arbitrage additive models for forward curves in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 157-170.
    14. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Park, Seyoung, 2016. "Ambiguity and optimal portfolio choice with Value-at-Risk constraint," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 158-176.
    15. Brix, Anne Floor & Lunde, Asger & Wei, Wei, 2018. "A generalized Schwartz model for energy spot prices — Estimation using a particle MCMC method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 560-582.
    16. Piergiacomo Sabino, 2021. "Normal Tempered Stable Processes and the Pricing of Energy Derivatives," Papers 2105.03071, arXiv.org.
    17. Bannör, Karl & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Nazarova, Anna & Scherer, Matthias, 2016. "Parametric model risk and power plant valuation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 423-434.
    18. René Aïd & Luciano Campi & Nicolas Langrené, 2010. "A structural risk-neutral model for pricing and hedging power derivatives," Working Papers hal-00525800, HAL.
    19. Gudkov, Nikolay & Ignatieva, Katja, 2021. "Electricity price modelling with stochastic volatility and jumps: An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    20. Ali Al-Aradi & Alvaro Cartea & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2018. "Technical Uncertainty in Real Options with Learning," Papers 1803.05831, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity aversion; Model uncertainty; Electricity interconnector; Statistical arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:79:y:2019:i:c:p:3-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.