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Plug-in hybrid vehicle GHG impacts in California: Integrating consumer-informed recharge profiles with an electricity-dispatch model

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  • Axsen, Jonn
  • Kurani, Kenneth S.
  • McCarthy, Ryan
  • Yang, Christopher

Abstract

This paper explores how Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs) may reduce source-to-wheel Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from passenger vehicles. The two primary advances are the incorporation of (1) explicit measures of consumer interest in and potential use of different types of PHEVs and (2) a model of the California electricity grid capable of differentiating hourly and seasonal GHG emissions by generation source. We construct PHEV emissions scenarios to address inherent relationships between vehicle design, driving and recharging behaviors, seasonal and time-of-day variation in GHG-intensity of electricity, and total GHG emissions. A sample of 877 California new vehicle buyers provide data on driving, time of day recharge access, and PHEV design interests. The elicited data differ substantially from the assumptions used in previous analyses. We construct electricity demand profiles scaled to one million PHEVs and input them into an hourly California electricity supply model to simulate GHG emissions. Compared to conventional vehicles, consumer-designed PHEVs cut marginal (incremental) GHG emissions by more than one-third in current California energy scenarios and by one-quarter in future energy scenarios--reductions similar to those simulated for all-electric PHEV designs. Across the emissions scenarios, long-term GHG reductions depends on reducing the carbon intensity of the grid.

Suggested Citation

  • Axsen, Jonn & Kurani, Kenneth S. & McCarthy, Ryan & Yang, Christopher, 2011. "Plug-in hybrid vehicle GHG impacts in California: Integrating consumer-informed recharge profiles with an electricity-dispatch model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1617-1629, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:3:p:1617-1629
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hadley, Stanton W. & Tsvetkova, Alexandra A., 2009. "Potential Impacts of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Regional Power Generation," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 56-68, December.
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    3. Farrell, Alexander & Sperling, Daniel, 2007. "A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California, Part 2: Policy Analysis," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt8xv635dc, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
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    6. Axsen, Jonn & Burke, Andy & Kurani, Kenneth S, 2010. "Are Batteries Ready for Plug-in Hybrid Buyers?," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt7vh184rw, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    7. Farrell, Alexander E. & Sperling, Daniel & Brandt, A.R. & Eggert, A. & Farrell, A.E. & Haya, B.K. & Hughes, J. & Jenkins, B.M. & Jones, A.D. & Kammen, D.M. & Knittel, C.R. & Melaina, M.W. & O'Hare, M., 2007. "A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California Part 2: Policy Analysis," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt1hm6k089, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
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    9. McCarthy, Ryan W., 2009. "Assessing Vehicle Electricity Demand Impacts on California Electricity Supply," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt5nn517r4, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
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