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Modeling generation expansion in the context of a security of supply mechanism based on long-term auctions. Application to the Colombian case


  • Rodilla, P.
  • Batlle, C.
  • Salazar, J.
  • Sánchez, J.J.


In an attempt to provide electricity generation investors with appropriate economic incentives so as to maintain quality of supply at socially optimal levels, a growing number of electricity market regulators have opted for implementing a security of supply mechanism based on long-term auctions. In this context, the ability to analyze long-term investment dynamics is a key issue not only for market agents, but also for regulators. This paper describes a model developed to serve this purpose. A general system-dynamics-inspired methodology has been designed to be able to simulate these long-term auction mechanisms in the formats presently in place. A full-scale simulation based on the Colombian system was conducted to illustrate model capabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodilla, P. & Batlle, C. & Salazar, J. & Sánchez, J.J., 2011. "Modeling generation expansion in the context of a security of supply mechanism based on long-term auctions. Application to the Colombian case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 176-186, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:1:p:176-186

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Andrew Ford, 2002. "Boom and Bust in Power Plant Construction: Lessons from the California Electricity Crisis," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 59-74, June.
    2. Park, Jung-Yeon & Ahn, Nam-Sung & Yoon, Yong-Beum & Koh, Kyung-Ho & Bunn, Derek W., 2007. "Investment incentives in the Korean electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5819-5828, November.
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