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Energy security, energy modelling and uncertainty


  • Markandya, Anil
  • Pemberton, Malcolm


The paper develops a framework to analyze energy security in an expected utility framework, where there is a risk of disruption of imported energy. The analysis shows the importance of an energy tax as a tool in maximizing expected utility, and how the level of that tax varies according to the key parameters of the system: risk aversion, probability of disruption, demand elasticity and cost of disruption.

Suggested Citation

  • Markandya, Anil & Pemberton, Malcolm, 2010. "Energy security, energy modelling and uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1609-1613, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:4:p:1609-1613

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Costantini, Valeria & Gracceva, Francesco & Markandya, Anil & Vicini, Giorgio, 2007. "Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 210-226, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abada, Ibrahim & Massol, Olivier, 2011. "Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market.: Some model-based insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4077-4088, July.
    2. Mathy, S. & Criqui, P. & Knoop, K. & Fischedick, M. & Samadi, S., 2016. "Uncertainty management and the dynamic adjustment of Deep Decarbonization Pathways," Working Papers 2016-03, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    3. Xavier Labandeira & Baltazar Manzano, 2012. "Some Economic Aspects of Energy Security," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 47-64.
    4. Iskin, Ibrahim & Daim, Tugrul & Kayakutlu, Gulgun & Altuntas, Mehmet, 2012. "Exploring renewable energy pricing with analytic network process — Comparing a developed and a developing economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 882-891.
    5. repec:eee:rensus:v:76:y:2017:i:c:p:185-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. van Moerkerk, Mike & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2016. "A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 148-158.
    7. repec:ers:journl:v:xv:y:2012:i:sie:p:47-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Tang, Xu & Snowden, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Analysis of energy embodied in the international trade of UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 418-428.
    9. Sascha Samadi, 2017. "The Social Costs of Electricity Generation—Categorising Different Types of Costs and Evaluating Their Respective Relevance," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(3), pages 1-37, March.
    10. Böhringer, Christoph & Bortolamedi, Markus, 2015. "Sense and no(n)-sense of energy security indicators," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 359-371.
    11. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:11:p:2128-:d:119451 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Webster, Allan & Ayatakshi, Sukanya, 2013. "The effect of fossil energy and other environmental taxes on profit incentives for change in an open economy: Evidence from the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1422-1431.
    13. Baltasar Manzano & Luis Rey, 2012. "The Welfare Cost of Energy Insecurity," Working Papers fa07-2012, Economics for Energy.
    14. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.

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