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Uncertainty Management and the Dynamic Adjustment of Deep Decarbonization Pathways

Author

Listed:
  • Sandrine Mathy

    (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA [2016-2019] - Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019])

Abstract

This essay proposes a framework for addressing dynamic management issues related to decarbonization pathways in order to limit the need for adjustment, and its cost, over time. When choosing a pathway as more desirable, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on the implementation of specific policies and instruments. However, given structural effectiveness and timing uncertainties specific to each policy option, they may fail to deliver the expected outcomes in time. The possibility of diverging from one decarbonization trajectory to another without incurring excessive costs should therefore be a strategic element in the design of an appropriate decarbonization strategy. Such an adaptive pathway strategy should combine long-lived incentives to form consistent expectations, as well as adaptive policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandrine Mathy, 2018. "Uncertainty Management and the Dynamic Adjustment of Deep Decarbonization Pathways," Post-Print hal-01940365, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01940365
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chris Bataille & Henri Waisman & Michel Colombier & Laura Segafredo & Jim Williams & Frank Jotzo, 2016. "The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(sup1), pages 7-26, June.
    3. Spencer, Thomas & Pierfederici, Roberta & Sartor, Oliver & Berghmans, Nicolas & Samadi, Sascha & Fischedick, Manfred & Knoop, Katharina & Pye, Steve & Criqui, Patrick & Mathy, Sandrine & Capros, Pante, 2017. "Tracking sectoral progress in the deep decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 509-517.
    4. Rafał Nagaj & Bożena Gajdzik & Radosław Wolniak & Wieslaw Wes Grebski, 2024. "The Impact of Deep Decarbonization Policy on the Level of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-23, March.
    5. Franck Lecocq & Alain Nadaï & Christophe Cassen, 2022. "Getting models and modellers to inform deep decarbonization strategies," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 695-710, July.
    6. Lee, Hwarang, 2023. "Decarbonization strategies for steel production with uncertainty in hydrogen direct reduction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    7. Daniel Scamman & Baltazar Solano-Rodríguez & Steve Pye & Lai Fong Chiu & Andrew Z. P. Smith & Tiziano Gallo Cassarino & Mark Barrett & Robert Lowe, 2020. "Heat Decarbonisation Modelling Approaches in the UK: An Energy System Architecture Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-28, April.
    8. Frédéric Babonneau & Philippe Thalmann & Marc Vielle, 2018. "Defining deep decarbonization pathways for Switzerland: an economic evaluation," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, January.
    9. Li, Francis G.N. & Bataille, Chris & Pye, Steve & O'Sullivan, Aidan, 2019. "Prospects for energy economy modelling with big data: Hype, eliminating blind spots, or revolutionising the state of the art?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 991-1002.
    10. Christopher G. F. Bataille, 2020. "Physical and policy pathways to net‐zero emissions industry," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    11. Sandrine Mathy & P. Menanteau, 2020. "Mitigation strategies to enhance the ambition of the nationally determined contributions : an analysis of 4 European countries with the decarbonization wedges methodology," Post-Print hal-03190845, HAL.
    12. Mathy, Sandrine & Menanteau, Philippe & Criqui, Patrick, 2018. "After the Paris Agreement: Measuring the Global Decarbonization Wedges From National Energy Scenarios," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 273-289.
    13. Bai, Wuliyasu & Zhang, Long & Lu, Shengfang & Ren, Jingzheng & Zhou, Zhiqiao, 2023. "Sustainable energy transition in Southeast Asia: Energy status analysis, comprehensive evaluation and influential factor identification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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