Urban and rural household energy transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does spatial heterogeneity reveal the direction of the transition?

Understanding the dynamic behaviour of Sub-Saharan African households as they move along the energy ladder is essential for the energy transition in developing countries. This study applies Fixed and Random effect panel data models to analyse the drivers of rural and urban households' energy transition in Nigeria from 2010 to 2018. The estimation results from the panel models with robust standard errors show that rural households tend to increase their expenses on fuel sources that potentially substitute the energy source whose prices have increased. However, there is no significant relationship between the price and expenditure on different fuels in urban households. Irrespective of spatiality, we find that aside from income – education, household size, and internet access are essential drivers of household fuel choices. More importantly, we find evidence of reverse energy transition. We argue that this reverse energy transition limits the shift to cleaner fuels and increases the economic vulnerabilities of rural households. Our analysis also reveals that Nigerians’ preference for fuels is shifting to be price inelastic. We make a strong case for policies and interventions that raise household income, empower women, reduce the cost of living, and improve clean and affordable energy access to encourage energy transition.