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Global emissions from crude oil: The effect of oil-deposit heterogeneity

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  • Roberts, Gavin
  • Barbier, Edward
  • van 't Veld, Klaas

Abstract

We simulate future global oil production using a model that accounts for oil-deposit heterogeneity, in order to estimate future emissions and global warming associated with oil development. Oil-deposit heterogeneity causes development costs to increase as the stock of oil deposits is depleted. We calibrate our simulations to best estimates of heterogeneous global development costs. The underlying theory implies, and our simulations confirm, that when oil-deposit heterogeneity is large enough, some crude oil may optimally be left in the ground. Our results indicate that increasing degrees of deposit heterogeneity and higher carbon taxes lead to fewer cumulative emissions from oil by 2100, but that the Paris Agreement climate goals will be difficult to meet.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberts, Gavin & Barbier, Edward & van 't Veld, Klaas, 2019. "Global emissions from crude oil: The effect of oil-deposit heterogeneity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 654-664.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:132:y:2019:i:c:p:654-664
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.06.008
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    1. Mohamed Ouédraogo & Daiyan Peng & Xi Chen & Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Mamoudou Ibrahima Sall, 2021. "Dynamic Effect of Oil Resources on Environmental Quality: Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Selected African Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Adewale Samuel Hassan, 2024. "Oil production and ecological footprint in Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC): the moderating role of institutions," International Journal of Business Ecosystem & Strategy (2687-2293), Bussecon International Academy, vol. 6(4), pages 311-326, September.
    3. Enisan, Akinlo A., . "Oil Sector and Carbon Emissions in Nigeria: Asymmetry Analysis," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 11(2).
    4. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Jiahao & Bai, Lan & Wang, Yizhi, 2023. "Connectedness among El Niño-Southern Oscillation, carbon emission allowance, crude oil and renewable energy stock markets: Time- and frequency-domain evidence based on TVP-VAR model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 289-309.
    5. Haider Mahmood & Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Maham Furqan, 2020. "Oil sector and CO2 emissions in Saudi Arabia: asymmetry analysis," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-10, December.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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