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Impacts of energy shocks on US agricultural productivity growth and commodity prices—A structural VAR analysis

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  • Wang, Sun Ling
  • McPhail, Lihong

Abstract

We examine the impacts of energy price shocks on U.S. agricultural productivity growth and commodity prices' volatility by developing a structural VAR model. We use historical annual data of real U.S. gasoline prices, agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), real GDP, real agricultural exports, and real agricultural commodity price from 1948 to 2011 to estimate the model. Our results indicate that an energy price shock has a negative impact on productivity growth in the short run (1year). An energy price shock and an agricultural productivity shock each account for about 10% of U.S. agricultural commodity price volatility with the productivity shock's contribution slightly higher. However, the impact from energy prices outweighs the contribution of agricultural productivity in the medium term (3years). With more persistent impacts, energy shocks contribute to most (about 15%) of commodity price's variation in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Sun Ling & McPhail, Lihong, 2014. "Impacts of energy shocks on US agricultural productivity growth and commodity prices—A structural VAR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 435-444.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:435-444
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.05.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Hao & Liao, Hua & Tang, Bao-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Impacts of OPEC's political risk on the international crude oil prices: An empirical analysis based on the SVAR models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 42-49.
    2. Nie, Pu-yan & Yang, Yong-cong, 2016. "Effects of energy price fluctuations on industries with energy inputs: An application to China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 329-334.
    3. repec:eee:enepol:v:117:y:2018:i:c:p:39-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Suh, Dong Hee, 2015. "Identifying Factor Substitution and Energy Intensity in the U.S. Agricultural Sector," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205264, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Regmi, Madhav & Featherstone, Allen M., 2017. "U.S. Energy Price Volatility Spillover in Global Corn Markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252776, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Xian, Hui & Colson, Gregory & Karali, Berna & Wetzstein, Michael, 2017. "Do nonrenewable-energy prices affect renewable-energy volatility? The case of wood pellets," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 42-48.
    7. Dong Hee Suh, 2015. "Declining Energy Intensity in the U.S. Agricultural Sector: Implications for Factor Substitution and Technological Change," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(10), pages 1-14, September.
    8. Weigang Zhao & Yunfei Cao & Bo Miao & Ke Wang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2018. "Impacts of shifting China¡¯s final energy consumption to electricity on CO2 emission reduction," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 115, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    9. Margaritis, D. & Grosskopf, S. & Färe, R. & Ball, V. Eldon, 2014. "The role of energy productivity in the U.S. agriculture," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1424, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    10. Llop Llop, Maria, 2017. "Measuring the influence of energy prices within the price formation mechanism," Working Papers 2072/290764, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    11. repec:eee:eneeco:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:359-369 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Premachandra, I.M., 2016. "Information spillover dynamics of the energy futures market sector: A novel common factor approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 277-294.
    13. Wang, Sun Ling & Heisey, Paul & Schimmelpfennig, David & Ball, Eldon, 2015. "Agricultural Productivity Growth in the United States: Measurement, Trends, and Drivers," Economic Research Report 207954, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    14. Ball, V.E. & Färe, R. & Grosskopf, S. & Margaritis, D., 2015. "The role of energy productivity in U.S. agriculture," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 460-471.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. agricultural productivity growth; Total factor productivity (TFP); Energy shocks; Agricultural commodity prices; Structural VAR analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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