Exploring the impact of rural human capital on agricultural carbon emissions: Evidence from China

As the threat of climate change intensifies, carbon emissions from agriculture, one of the primary sources of greenhouse gases, have garnered significant attention. Achieving a low-carbon agricultural transformation is imperative for meeting the “dual carbon” goals. This study constructs a provincial panel dataset covering 31 provinces throughout China between 2000 and 2022. Utilizing fixed-effect, mediation, and moderation analyses, it systematically explores the link between rural human capital (RHC) and agricultural carbon emissions (ACE), as well as the mechanisms underlying it. Empirical findings demonstrate a statistically noteworthy inverse U-shaped relationship between RHC and agricultural carbon dioxide emissions. Specifically, ACE increases with RHC until it reaches a threshold of 9.141, after which emissions begin to decrease. Furthermore, agricultural mechanisation and financial support for agriculture serve as important mediating and moderating channels through which RHC influences the mitigation of ACE. From a regional perspective, the nonlinear inverted U-shaped linkage between RHC and ACE is pronounced in the eastern provinces, whereas no such pattern is observed in the central and western regions. At the same time, the carbon reduction thresholds exhibit significant variation across northern and southern regions. Taking into consideration these findings, the paper presents several policy recommendations, including strengthening RHC development, advancing agricultural mechanisation, increasing financial support, and implementing regionally differentiated policies to accelerate China's low-carbon agricultural transition and achieve “dual carbon” goals.