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A semiparametric Bayesian approach to the analysis of financial time series with applications to value at risk estimation

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  • Ausín, M. Concepción
  • Galeano, Pedro
  • Ghosh, Pulak

Abstract

GARCH models are commonly used for describing, estimating and predicting the dynamics of financial returns. Here, we relax the usual parametric distributional assumptions of GARCH models and develop a Bayesian semiparametric approach based on modeling the innovations using the class of scale mixtures of Gaussian distributions with a Dirichlet process prior on the mixing distribution. The proposed specification allows for greater flexibility in capturing the usual patterns observed in financial returns. It is also shown how to undertake Bayesian prediction of the Value at Risk (VaR). The performance of the proposed semiparametric method is illustrated using simulated and real data from the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Bombay Stock Exchange index (BSE30).

Suggested Citation

  • Ausín, M. Concepción & Galeano, Pedro & Ghosh, Pulak, 2014. "A semiparametric Bayesian approach to the analysis of financial time series with applications to value at risk estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 350-358.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:232:y:2014:i:2:p:350-358
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2013.07.008
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Virbickaitė, Audronė & Ausín, M. Concepción & Galeano, Pedro, 2016. "A Bayesian non-parametric approach to asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model with application to portfolio selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 814-829.
    2. Jensen, Mark J. & Maheu, John M., 2013. "Bayesian semiparametric multivariate GARCH modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 3-17.
    3. repec:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:203-214 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Delatola, E.-I. & Griffin, J.E., 2013. "A Bayesian semiparametric model for volatility with a leverage effect," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 97-110.
    5. Audrone Virbickaite & Hedibert F. Lopes & Maria Concepción Ausín & Pedro Galeano, 2018. "Particle Learning for Bayesian Semi-Parametric Stochastic Volatility Model," DEA Working Papers 88, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    6. Yu, Jing-Rung & Chiou, Wan-Jiun Paul & Mu, Da-Ren, 2015. "A linearized value-at-risk model with transaction costs and short selling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(3), pages 872-878.
    7. Xibin Zhang & Maxwell L. King, 2013. "Gaussian kernel GARCH models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    8. Fernández, Arturo J., 2015. "Optimum attributes component test plans for k-out-of-n:F Weibull systems using prior information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(3), pages 688-696.
    9. Martina Danielova Zaharieva & Mark Trede & Bernd Wilfling, 2017. "Bayesian semiparametric multivariate stochastic volatility with an application to international stock-market co-movements," CQE Working Papers 6217, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    10. Huang, Yan & Kou, Gang & Peng, Yi, 2017. "Nonlinear manifold learning for early warnings in financial markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(2), pages 692-702.

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