IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/wsrepe/ws141711.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bayesian estimation of a dynamic conditional correlation model with multivariate Skew-Slash innovations

Author

Listed:
  • Galeano San Miguel, Pedro
  • García de la Fuente, Cristina
  • Wiper, Michael Peter

Abstract

Financial returns often present a complex relation with previous observations, along with a slight skewness and high kurtosis. As a consequence, we must pursue the use of flexible models that are able to seize these special features: a financial process that can expose the intertemporal relation between observations, together with a distribution that can capture asymmetry and heavy tails simultaneously. A multivariate extension of the GARCH such as the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model with Skew-Slashinnovations for financial time series in a Bayesian framework is proposed in the present document, and it is illustrated using an MCMC within Gibbs algorithm performed onsimulated data, as well as real data drawn from the daily closing prices of the DAX,CAC40, and Nikkei indices

Suggested Citation

  • Galeano San Miguel, Pedro & García de la Fuente, Cristina & Wiper, Michael Peter, 2014. "Bayesian estimation of a dynamic conditional correlation model with multivariate Skew-Slash innovations," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141711, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws141711
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/19028/ws141711.pdf?sequence=1
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Galeano, Pedro & Ausín, M. Concepción, 2010. "The Gaussian Mixture Dynamic Conditional Correlation Model: Parameter Estimation, Value at Risk Calculation, and Portfolio Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 559-571.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    4. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    5. Ausin, Maria Concepcion & Galeano, Pedro, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of the Gaussian mixture GARCH model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 2636-2652, February.
    6. Galeano San Miguel, Pedro & García de la Fuente, Cristina & Wiper, Michael Peter, 2012. "Modeling financial time series with the skew slash distribution," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws121108, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. Jeantheau, Thierry, 1998. "Strong Consistency Of Estimators For Multivariate Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 70-86, February.
    8. Kawakatsu, Hiroyuki, 2006. "Matrix exponential GARCH," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 95-128, September.
    9. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    10. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika van der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639.
    11. Bai, Xuezheng & Russell, Jeffrey R. & Tiao, George C., 2003. "Kurtosis of GARCH and stochastic volatility models with non-normal innovations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 349-360, June.
    12. Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990. "Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237.
    13. A. Azzalini & A. Capitanio, 1999. "Statistical applications of the multivariate skew normal distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(3), pages 579-602.
    14. José A. Fioruci & Ricardo S. Ehlers & Marinho G. Andrade Filho, 2014. "Bayesian multivariate GARCH models with dynamic correlations and asymmetric error distributions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 320-331, February.
    15. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    16. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew "t"-distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389.
    17. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    18. I. D. Vrontos & P. Dellaportas & D. N. Politis, 2003. "A full-factor multivariate GARCH model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 312-334, December.
    19. Roy van der Weide, 2002. "GO-GARCH: a multivariate generalized orthogonal GARCH model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 549-564.
    20. Gian Piero Aielli, 2013. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: On Properties and Estimation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 282-299, July.
    21. Engle, Robert F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Kraft, Dennis, 1984. "Combining competing forecasts of inflation using a bivariate arch model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 151-165, November.
    22. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    23. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    24. Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Michele Gobbo, 2006. "Flexible Dynamic Conditional Correlation multivariate GARCH models for asset allocation," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 123-130, March.
    25. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saker Sabkha & Christian De Peretti, 2018. "On the performances of Dynamic Conditional Correlation models in the Sovereign CDS market and the corresponding bond market," Working Papers hal-01710398, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian inference;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws141711. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Poveda). General contact details of provider: http://portal.uc3m.es/portal/page/portal/dpto_estadistica .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.