IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/japsta/v41y2014i2p320-331.html

Bayesian multivariate GARCH models with dynamic correlations and asymmetric error distributions

Author

Listed:
  • Jos� A. Fioruci
  • Ricardo S. Ehlers
  • Marinho G. Andrade Filho

Abstract

The main goal in this paper is to develop and apply stochastic simulation techniques for GARCH models with multivariate skewed distributions using the Bayesian approach. Both parameter estimation and model comparison are not trivial tasks and several approximate and computationally intensive methods (Markov chain Monte Carlo) will be used to this end. We consider a flexible class of multivariate distributions which can model both skewness and heavy tails. Also, we do not fix tail behaviour when dealing with fat tail distributions but leave it subject to inference.

Suggested Citation

  • Jos� A. Fioruci & Ricardo S. Ehlers & Marinho G. Andrade Filho, 2014. "Bayesian multivariate GARCH models with dynamic correlations and asymmetric error distributions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 320-331, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:41:y:2014:i:2:p:320-331
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2013.839635
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02664763.2013.839635
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/02664763.2013.839635?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Bauwens, Luc & Laurent, Sebastien, 2005. "A New Class of Multivariate Skew Densities, With Application to Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 346-354, July.
    4. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    5. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2003. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in Multivariate Conditionally Heteroscedastic Dynamic Regression Models with Student t Innovations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 532-546, October.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    7. Lars Forsberg & Tim Bollerslev, 2002. "Bridging the gap between the distribution of realized (ECU) volatility and ARCH modelling (of the Euro): the GARCH-NIG model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 535-548.
    8. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
    9. Christodoulakis, George A. & Satchell, Stephen E., 2002. "Correlated ARCH (CorrARCH): Modelling the time-varying conditional correlation between financial asset returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 351-370, June.
    10. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    11. Ausin, M. Concepcion & Lopes, Hedibert F., 2010. "Time-varying joint distribution through copulas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2383-2399, November.
    12. Branco, Márcia D. & Dey, Dipak K., 2001. "A General Class of Multivariate Skew-Elliptical Distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 99-113, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. García de la Fuente, Cristina & Galeano San Miguel, Pedro & Wiper, Michael Peter, 2014. "Bayesian estimation of a dynamic conditional correlation model with multivariate Skew-Slash innovations," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141711, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Fausto Pacicco & Luigi Vena & Andrea Venegoni, 2017. "Full disclosure and financial stability: how does the market digest the transparency shock?," LIUC Papers in Economics 305, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    3. Paolo Zagaglia, 2024. "Stocks, Gold and Crude Oil: How Valuable are Volatility and Correlation Timing?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 14(6), pages 1-5.
    4. Kai Dong & Ching-Ter Chang & Shaonan Wang & Xiaoxi Liu, 2021. "The Dynamic Correlation among Financial Leverage, House Price, and Consumer Expenditure in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-18, March.
    5. Guangyang Chen & Kai Dong & Shaonan Wang & Xiuli Du & Ronghua Zhou & Zhongwei Yang, 2022. "The Dynamic Relationship among Bank Credit, House Prices and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-18, August.
    6. Foos, Daniel & Lütkebohmert, Eva & Markovych, Mariia & Pliszka, Kamil, 2017. "Euro area banks' interest rate risk exposure to level, slope and curvature swings in the yield curve," Discussion Papers 24/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Marcelo Scherer Perlin & Mauro Mastella & Daniel Francisco Vancin & Henrique Pinto Ramos, 2021. "A GARCH Tutorial with R," RAC - Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Journal of Contemporary Administration), ANPAD - Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração, vol. 25(1), pages 200088-2000.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yip, Iris W.H. & So, Mike K.P., 2009. "Simplified specifications of a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 327-340.
    2. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    3. Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2019. "Improved Covariance Matrix Estimation for Portfolio Risk Measurement: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, March.
    4. de Almeida, Daniel & Hotta, Luiz K. & Ruiz, Esther, 2018. "MGARCH models: Trade-off between feasibility and flexibility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 45-63.
    5. Lukanima, Benedicto Kulwizira & Sanchez-Barrios, Luis Javier & Gómez-Bravo, Yuli Paola, 2024. "Towards understanding MILA stock markets integration beyond MILA: New evidence between the pre-Global financial crisis and the COVID19 periods," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 478-497.
    6. Stelios D. Bekiros, 2013. "Decoupling and the Spillover Effects of the US Financial Crisis: Evidence from the BRIC Markets," Working Paper series 21_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    7. Jun Yu & Renate Meyer, 2006. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation and Model Comparison," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2-3), pages 361-384.
    8. Otranto, Edoardo, 2010. "Identifying financial time series with similar dynamic conditional correlation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 1-15, January.
    9. Paolella, Marc S. & Polak, Paweł & Walker, Patrick S., 2021. "A non-elliptical orthogonal GARCH model for portfolio selection under transaction costs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    10. Kin-Yip Ho & Albert K Tsui, 2008. "Volatility Dynamics in Foreign Exchange Rates : Further Evidence from the Malaysian Ringgit and Singapore Dollar," Finance Working Papers 22571, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    11. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2008. "Testing the Hypothesis of Contagion Using Multivariate Volatility Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 28(2), November.
    12. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    13. Harris, Richard D.F. & Mazibas, Murat, 2010. "Dynamic hedge fund portfolio construction," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 351-357, December.
    14. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    15. Dahiru A. Balaa & Taro Takimotob, 2017. "Stock markets volatility spillovers during financial crises: A DCC-MGARCH with skewed-t density approach," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 17(1), pages 25-48, March.
    16. Herwartz, Helmut & Golosnoy, Vasyl, 2007. "Semiparametric Approaches to the Prediction of Conditional Correlation Matrices in Finance," Economics Working Papers 2007-23, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    17. de Oliveira, Felipe A. & Maia, Sinézio F. & de Jesus, Diego P. & Besarria, Cássio da N., 2018. "Which information matters to market risk spreading in Brazil? Volatility transmission modelling using MGARCH-BEKK, DCC, t-Copulas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 83-100.
    18. Marçal, Emerson F. & Valls Pereira, Pedro L., 2008. "Testando A Hipótese De Contágio A Partir De Modelos Multivariados De Volatilidade [Testing the contagion hypotheses using multivariate volatility models]," MPRA Paper 10356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Dimitrios Thomakos & Johannes Klepsch & Dimitris N. Politis, 2020. "Model Free Inference on Multivariate Time Series with Conditional Correlations," Stats, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-26, November.
    20. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2009. "Multivariate GARCH Models," Springer Books, in: Thomas Mikosch & Jens-Peter Kreiß & Richard A. Davis & Torben Gustav Andersen (ed.), Handbook of Financial Time Series, chapter 9, pages 201-229, Springer.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:41:y:2014:i:2:p:320-331. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.