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A Bayesian semiparametric model for volatility with a leverage effect

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  • Delatola, E.-I.
  • Griffin, J.E.

Abstract

A Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility model for financial data is developed. This nonparametrically estimates the return distribution from the data allowing for stylized facts such as heavy tails of the distribution of returns whilst also allowing for correlation between the returns and changes in volatility, which is usually termed the leverage effect. An efficient MCMC algorithm is described for inference. The model is applied to simulated data and two real data sets. The results of fitting the model to these data show that choosing a parametric return distribution can have a substantial effect on inference about the leverage effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Delatola, E.-I. & Griffin, J.E., 2013. "A Bayesian semiparametric model for volatility with a leverage effect," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 97-110.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:60:y:2013:i:c:p:97-110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2012.10.023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ausín, M. Concepción & Galeano, Pedro & Ghosh, Pulak, 2014. "A semiparametric Bayesian approach to the analysis of financial time series with applications to value at risk estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 350-358.
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    8. Omori, Yasuhiro & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2007. "Stochastic volatility with leverage: Fast and efficient likelihood inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 425-449, October.
    9. repec:hal:journl:peer-00834423 is not listed on IDEAS
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    2. Jin, Xin & Maheu, John M., 2016. "Bayesian semiparametric modeling of realized covariance matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 19-39.
    3. Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2019. "Improved Covariance Matrix Estimation for Portfolio Risk Measurement: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, March.
    4. Virbickaitė, Audronė & Ausín, M. Concepción & Galeano, Pedro, 2016. "A Bayesian non-parametric approach to asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model with application to portfolio selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 814-829.
    5. Martin, Gael M. & Frazier, David T. & Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Loaiza-Maya, Rubén & Huber, Florian & Koop, Gary & Maheu, John & Nibbering, Didier & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2024. "Bayesian forecasting in economics and finance: A modern review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 811-839.
    6. Mao, Xiuping & Ruiz, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2017. "Threshold stochastic volatility: Properties and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1105-1123.
    7. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    8. Lengua Lafosse, Patricia & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2018. "An empirical application of a stochastic volatility model with GH skew Student's t-distribution to the volatility of Latin-American stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 155-173.
    9. Virbickaite, Audrone & Lopes, Hedibert F. & Ausín Olivera, María Concepción & Galeano San Miguel, Pedro, 2014. "Particle learning for Bayesian non-parametric Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility model," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws142819, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    10. Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2018. "Risk, Return and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, September.
    11. Jim Griffin & Maria Kalli & Mark Steel, 2018. "Discussion of “Nonparametric Bayesian Inference in Applications”: Bayesian nonparametric methods in econometrics," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 27(2), pages 207-218, June.
    12. Chenxing Li & John M. Maheu & Qiao Yang, 2024. "An infinite hidden Markov model with stochastic volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2187-2211, September.

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