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Persistent Pandemics

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  • Lin, Peter Z.
  • Meissner, Christopher M.

Abstract

We ask whether mortality from historical pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic. We find strong persistence in public health performance. Places that performed worse in terms of mortality in the 1918 influenza pandemic also have higher Covid-19 mortality today. This is true across countries as well as across a sample of large US cities. Experience with SARS in 2003 is associated with slightly lower mortality today. We discuss some socio-political factors that may account for persistence including distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages. Multi-generational effects of past pandemics may also matter.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Peter Z. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2021. "Persistent Pandemics," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:43:y:2021:i:c:s1570677x2100068x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044
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    References listed on IDEAS

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