IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ehbiol/v43y2021ics1570677x2100068x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Persistent Pandemics

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Peter Z.
  • Meissner, Christopher M.

Abstract

We ask whether mortality from historical pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic. We find strong persistence in public health performance. Places that performed worse in terms of mortality in the 1918 influenza pandemic also have higher Covid-19 mortality today. This is true across countries as well as across a sample of large US cities. Experience with SARS in 2003 is associated with slightly lower mortality today. We discuss some socio-political factors that may account for persistence including distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages. Multi-generational effects of past pandemics may also matter.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Peter Z. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2021. "Persistent Pandemics," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:43:y:2021:i:c:s1570677x2100068x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570677X2100068X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clay, Karen & Lewis, Joshua & Severnini, Edson, 2018. "Pollution, Infectious Disease, and Mortality: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1179-1209, December.
    2. Doshi, P., 2008. "Trends in recorded influenza mortality: United States, 1900-2004," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 98(5), pages 939-945.
    3. Arnstein Aassve & Guido Alfani & Francesco Gandolfi & Marco Le Moglie, 2021. "Epidemics and trust: The case of the Spanish Flu," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 840-857, April.
    4. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 26866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Richter, André & Robling, Per Olof, 2013. "Multigenerational e ffects of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden," Working Paper Series 5/2013, Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research.
    6. Hilt, Eric & Rahn, Wendy, 2020. "Financial Asset Ownership and Political Partisanship: Liberty Bonds and Republican Electoral Success in the 1920s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(3), pages 746-781, September.
    7. Lembke B., 1918. "√ a. p," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 111(1), pages 709-712, February.
    8. Václav Fanta & Miroslav Šálek & Petr Sklenicka, 2019. "How long do floods throughout the millennium remain in the collective memory?," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guillaume Chapelle, 2020. "The medium-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The case of the 1918 influenza in US cities," Working Papers hal-03389177, HAL.
    2. Luca Di Gialleonardo & Mauro Marè & Antonello Motroni & Francesco Porcelli, 2020. "Family Ties and the Pandemic: Some Evidence from Sars-CoV-2," Working papers 100, Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica.
    3. Correia, Sergio & Luck, Stephan & Verner, Emil, 2022. "Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 917-957, December.
    4. Velde, François R., 2022. "What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 284-326, March.
    5. Brian Beach & Karen Clay & Martin Saavedra, 2022. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Its Lessons for COVID-19," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 41-84, March.
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7m2qa73prn89eogubjm0rc58le is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Richard Franke, 2022. "Poverty, pollution, and mortality: The 1918 influenza pandemic in a developing German economy," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1026-1053, November.
    8. Peter Zhixian Lin & Christopher M. Meissner, 2020. "A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics," NBER Working Papers 27119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Daniel de Kadt & Johan Fourie & Jan Greyling & Elie Murard & Johannes Norling, 2021. "Correlates and Consequences of the 1918 Influenza in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(2), pages 173-195, June.
    10. Jappelli, Tullio & Carillo, Mario Francesco, 2020. "Pandemics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14849, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Amanda Guimbeau & Nidhiya Menon & Aldo Musacchio, 2020. "The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way," NBER Working Papers 26929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7m2qa73prn89eogubjm0rc58le is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Mitchener, Kris & Esteves, Rui & Nencka, Peter & Thomasson, Melissa A, 2022. "Do Pandemics Change Healthcare? Evidence from the Great Influenza," CEPR Discussion Papers 17666, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Joël Floris & Laurent Kaiser & Harald Mayr & Kaspar Staub & Ulrich Woitek, 2022. "Investigating survivorship bias: the case of the 1918 flu pandemic," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(21), pages 2047-2052, December.
    15. C. Justin Cook & Jason M. Fletcher & Angela Forgues, 2019. "Multigenerational Effects of Early-Life Health Shocks," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(5), pages 1855-1874, October.
    16. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Pinger, Pia R., 2016. "Transgenerational effects of childhood conditions on third generation health and education outcomes," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 103-120.
    17. Pensieroso, Luca & Sommacal, Alessandro & Spolverini, Gaia, 2023. "Intergenerational coresidence and the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    18. Guillaume Chapelle, 2022. "The medium-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The case of the 1918 influenza in US cities," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 43-81.
    19. Bengtsson, Tommy & Helgertz, Jonas, 2015. "The Long Lasting Influenza: The Impact of Fetal Stress during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on Socioeconomic Attainment and Health in Sweden 1968-2012," IZA Discussion Papers 9327, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2020. "Death, Demography and the Denominator: New Influenza-18 Mortality Estimates for Ireland," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2020-04, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    21. Philipp Ager & Katherine Eriksson & Ezra Karger & Peter Nencka & Melissa A. Thomasson, 2024. "School Closures during the 1918 Flu Pandemic," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 266-276, January.
    22. Clay, Karen & Lewis, Joshua & Severnini, Edson, 2019. "What explains cross-city variation in mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic? Evidence from 438 U.S. cities," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 42-50.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:43:y:2021:i:c:s1570677x2100068x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622964 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.